Bad News and Good for the Kirks.

Smart Money says that Rep. Mark Kirk will win the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate…that he will handily defeat under-financed Patrick Hughes-but that Kirk will not be able to defeat State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. “You may think Giannoulias has baggage,” said Smart Money, “but he’s done a superb job of dealing with it-his fore-square accounting of his assets and sharing it with the voters. His personal charm is phenomenal and his first TV commercial is awesome.”
That may be but his charm has eluded me.

Well, losing Mark Kirk is no big deal for me as I long ago said I wouldn’t vote for him. I’ll vote for Hughes and if Kirk wins I’ll take a pass. Still I would have liked to see a Republican senator for Illinois. But Smart Money added:

“Dry your eyes, sweetheart. You guys will win the governorship with Kirk Dillard. He’ll face Pat Quinn and defeat him. The public is totally fed up with the mess in Springfield.”

Winning a governorship is better than winning a senate seat any day.

Your views?

Great Moments in Obama History.

Can you supply me with good comment on this irony? In his inaugural address, Barack Obama said “…and we will restore science to its rightful place!”

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Tom Roeser is the Chairman of the Editorial Board of the Chicago Daily Observer

It appears that Andy McKenna who has long dreamed of a successful elective political career will shortly announce that he will be a candidate for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.  But McKenna has a lot of wood to chop since as state Republican chairman, he didn’t win many adherents given the low estate of the state GOP under his tenure.

Be that as it may, the view is current that he has chosen young, vigorous State Sen. Matt Murphy, Palatine, to run for lieutenant governor.  Although the primary does not allow linkage there is no problem with the two of them running unofficially as a team.   Up to now Murphy has been a declared candidate for governor but will drop that bid.  Murphy is a hugely popular candidate with conservatives.  True, the two of them are Irish Catholics from the suburbs but geography may not mean much anymore in Illinois.  Look at the Democrats: Quinn, Hynes, Lisa Madigan, Alexi Giannoulias, White—all from the Chicago area.

Also it appears that State Sen. Kirk Dillard (R-Hinsdale) will run with the same kind of unofficial linkage with a fresh, young face from downstate Edwardsville: Jason Plummer, 27, former Republican chairman of Madison county, the scion of Robert Plummer, a multi-millionaire CEO of R. P. Lumber, who owns a string of lumber retail stores throughout southern Illinois.   Both Plummers are strong conservatives, Robert having been a mainstay financial backer of the Illinois Civil Justice League which has successfully supported tort reform.  Jason Plummer will announce his formal campaign for lieutenant governor shortly.

If these rumors come to pass, it seems that the prime winner in this roundelay are Adam Andrzejewski (AnGEE-EF-ski) the new kid on the block, who has not held public office up to now and has with dynamism fired up the grassroots.  Dan Proft, the conservative political consultant and pundit who has a gifted way with words is also helped. Andrzejewski will be a guest on my WLS radio program this coming Sunday along with Eugene Mullins, spokesman for Cook county board president Todd Stroger.

The reason I say this is that Andrzejewski and Proft seem to be the only ones who have campaigns that are up and running.  Of the two, I would think Andrzejewski would be helped more…since as a successful business entrepreneur he has a quality Republican voters seem to pay more attention to.    Also he appears to have a definite organization in place while Proft seems to depend more upon media and his hair-trigger, colorful responses. (Having said this, I expect to hear from Proft within minutes of this being posted).

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Tom Roeser is the Chairman of the Editorial Board of the Chicago Daily Observer

Moreover the current Democratic governor is unable to deal with a recalcitrant Democratic legislature on ethics-his credibility dashed because of his campaign manager’s offer to lobbying groups to buy face-time with the governor at $15,000 a pop-for which the governor has blamed his staff rather than manfully taking the blame himself. The Democratic governor and the Democratic legislature are considering raising taxes in a recession: a sure toxic that can lead to defeat.

The Speaker of the Democratic House is dragging his feet on ethics reform presumably because the proposed rules will be too strict for his step-daughter, the Democratic attorney general who wants to run for governor, to meet. The Democratic state treasurer who wants to run for the Democratic senatorial nomination is a young banker who bankrolled with loans some of the Mafia.

With all that going on, you’d think the Republican party would be priming for a fight with a battalion of potential candidates knocking on its door. Not so. And the reason is simple.

Gone are the days when the so-called “A-List” of sturdy contributors and fund-raisers from the business community were able to sit down, interview and decide to finance and back good candidates. When I moved back here from Minnesota in 1964 (a bad year for the GOP) the crowned heads of the senior business community would meet for lunch weekly, in Room 100 of the Chicago Club. The leaders of all the major industries were there-men who had given much of their lives and free time to civic, philanthropy and politics. One was my boss, the CEO of Quaker. At age 36, I attended as a go-fer, taking notes and seeing the questions they asked were satisfactorily answered. Who were they? Most of them are dead now but they represented the banking industry, consumer goods, engineering: about 20 in number with lists that ranged into the hundreds who wanted to join them. The great unwritten rule was that they were to decide on candidates without any “deal” being made with the candidates to help their particular industries if and when they get elected.

You can fault the process but it worked well. They picked candidates they would raise money for and once agreed they went out and by God raised money in sufficient amounts for the whole ticket, from top to bottom: U. S. senator, governor, attorney general, treasurer, secretary of state and on and on. If a guy didn’t get their support, he was free to run and raise his own money. Some did and beat the system. Not often, though.

That group of 20 would be exhilarated now because of the great opportunity beckoning for their party. By now they would have completed the interviewing candidates informally at lunch and taking notes. Long before this they would have come forth…in private…with a suggested ticket and a budget. But that hasn’t happened now. Why not?

Because the Republicans are bereft of those men (almost all of whom are dead or long retired)? Very possibly. Instead of a gang of 20 or more, very-very tiny minority of prosperous givers meet occasionally with the state Republican chairman, Andy McKenna, as their head. The meetings are lethargic and mainly gossip, all the while nothing is done. Mainly names are lofted up and shot down. This candidate is too old, this candidate has freckles, this candidate ran once before for something and antagonized my Aunt Julia. This candidate who’s a lawyer was at one time a tort lawyer and we gotta block him.

The result of this glacial pace is that we are almost at June in the crucial year before election and no major league candidates have been encouraged to run-with the pledge of solid campaign support. No ticket has been suggested, a ticket that needs finances in double-digit millions. Some think the reason is that there is a purposeful stall: that McKenna wants to see it stall on dead center so he can arise and say, “okay fellas, since nobody will do it, I will.” McKenna is a man of wealth and his father who is key in all this has great connections.

That’s a possibility but the real reason for the stall may well be the inexperience of the tiny group that deliberates. Only two of them ever ran for anything statewide. Collectively, the small group frankly may not know the trade of raising significant money. The trade that old gang of 20 knew.

My point is simply this. The main line job is governor: because from that reasonable party-building can occur. Who do they favor for governor? Mark Kirk is not available. But who’s for senator? Had they given a thought about…for example…Terry Barnich? Odds are they never heard of him until he was killed. No, I don’t think they would have given him a shot. The state central committee had rejected him once before-before they went for Alan Keyes. That’s what I mean by culpable inexperience.

There’s a guy running for governor with a foot-long Polish name (ed. Adam Andrzejewski)  who uses as an argument his inexperience. Inexperience in raising money, inexperience in knowing anything at all about governing, inexperience at knowing any of the legislators. He says it’s a big selling point. Do you want a brain surgeon to remove your tumor who’s chief claim is that he isn’t burdened by past surgical mistakes? Do you want an airline pilot who is a citizen pilot, willing to take a crack at the controls if somebody hands him a manual?

Inexperience in party processes is evidently the malady. Nobody…but nobody…knows what to do. Never, ever have I seen my party so bereft of fund-raising strategic judgment bearing on candidate selection and encouragement. The more I think of it…

The more I think of it, it may very well be a purposeful stall: for Andy McKenna. Well… given what he’s done as state chairman …with his quiet, understated approach…he could become the candidate for governor of a party that frankly doesn’t know what it should be doing. And thus isn’t doing it.

If so, seeing how unlettered he is in state government, he’ll be the practitioner of the original Amateur Hour. Like Major Bowes, not American Idol or Dancing with the Stars. What he should do is tell us if this is his game or not. And if not, what’s the delay?

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Tom Roeser is the Chairman of the Editorial Board at the Chicago Daily Observer.

image Chicago Club

Both Chicago and suburban Cook County each represent 20% of the statewide vote. Cook County represents nearly half of the statewide vote.

Illinois is considered a blue state, but prior to George Ryan’s conviction, Republicans won 75% of executive offices. This is because there is a predictable 18% decrease in voter turnout reducing the Chicago Democrat advantage for executive office election cycles. 74% of registered voters vote in presidential cycles and 56% of registered voters vote in executive office cycles (96% confidence interval)

More at GOP Illinois

Andy McKenna has a long list of reasons why he is disgusted with the Illinois Democrats.

Sen. Bill Brady Wants Sen. Burris to Resign

Rep. Tom Cross is audibly angered with the Democrats re their patterns of corruption

The Illinois Republicans have started a petition drive for a special election

Rep Jim Durkin and Tom Cross want more information on Rep. Barbara Flynn Currie’s handling of the Burrs affadavit.

In the meantime…

Gov. Pat Quinn has hired Jack Lavin as Chief Operating Officer.  Lavin was formerly CFO for Rezko Enterprise, one of Tony Rezko’s companies, and DCCA head for Gov. Blagojevich.

Blagojevich insider John Filan remains as head of the Illinois Finance Authority.

Some things never change