It’s a current cliché to opine that Republicans aren’t happy with their field of presidential candidates, but the Iowa results reinforce the concept, regardless of what happens in New Hampshire. The Republican Party is perilously fractured.
Out went Mitt Romney, one of the important establishment guys—and in came Mike Huckabee, the most outsiderish of the lot. Even if Romney recovers in New Hampshire, a die has been cast that suggests even more problems for the Grand Old Party.
To wit: all the candidates were either badly wounded or exposed serious sores that will be rubbed raw in the general election to come.
Huckabee’s incredible gaffes and displays of ignorance will not garner him the independent or crossover Democratic votes he would need in what is already an unlikely year for Republicans. Yes, he was able to inspire evangelicals and just enough traditional Republicans in Iowa to make the numbers look good, but even his great personal style and humor will not be good enough to erase those gaffes after the Democratic swiftboaters play them endlessly on tube and internet for months at a time.
The robotic Romney’s switch from CEO to folksy rube to Christian nativist and back again also left a garbage heap of gaffes in his wake. I can just see the spots the Obama or Clinton people will create around Romney’s flip-flops on abortion and gay rights or telling the world that he would consult his lawyers—not Congress—when it comes to bombing Iran. Let’s also be realistic: his Mormonism has and will hurt him regardless of the more pious points of view that he shouldn’t be judged by his religion. Part of the Repub base will just stay home.
Rudy Giuliani did not contest Iowa, but neither did John McCain. McCain got double digits while the nationally front-running ex-mayor of New York finished with lower numbers than Ron Paul. The campaign brought out scores of near-fatal defects in Giuliani’s past. He wisely admits he has not led a perfect life but claims he learns from his mistakes. He now seems to have earned a PhD in mistakes, which will ultimately debase his hero-of-9/11 status. More stay-at-homes.
John McCain appears to be having the comeback I suggested was possible several weeks ago. If he wins in New Hampshire he again becomes a GOP factor—but there is still a large constituency that hates him for campaign reform or immigration sense or both. His ardent support of the war will disqualify him among prospective crossover Dems should he snag the nomination. His age, too, will be a silent negative factor in an election that seems to portend a huge youth vote. (He’s almost as old as I am!)
That leaves the lugubrious Fred Thompson who has thus far failed to inspire. He couldn’t even inspire himself enough to express any notion that he could become president. His laziness and strange lack of communication skills certainly hurt him, but perhaps not mortally. Could he become the default candidate? OK—but it will take an unlikely 180-degree turnaround in style and substance to offer any semblance of a general election campaign. As someone said, he appears to be Bob Dole without the experience or sense of humor.
Sages such as William Buckley suggest the Republican Party may not be able to survive the current crisis. All they can do is pray Hillary wins the nomination and rejuvenates their many pieces into a negativity-driven unity.
The Dems, on the other hand, got by the long run-up to Iowa without doing significant damage to each other or exposing any fatal flaws among the leading candidates—other than Clinton’s already well-known defects.
Looks more than ever like a Democratic year.
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Don Rose is a regular political commentator for The Chicago Daily Observer. This column was written several days before the New Hampshire primary (and not published earlier because it was entirely the fault of the chairman of the editorial board for which apologies).