PARIS—This column has long been sunny in its outlook for Barack Obama, but—at least in the view from overseas—some clouds are gathering.

Here, of course, he is wildly popular in the expat community—garnering 71 percent of the vote in the official Democrats Abroad primary in France—and seems to have captured the hearts of the French as well. I suspect he could be elected president of France in a landslide.

But since Pennsylvania, he has been forced to battle four opponents at once—two Clintons and John McCain frontally, plus the Rev. Jeremiah Wright from the rear. It has thrown the campaign somewhat off course and there is a sense he has been brought down to earth. The soaring rhetoric, the sense of unification he seemed to promise, the change he portended, all seem at least for the moment to have taken a backseat during this tough hand-to-hand combat.

Obama’s former pastor, hurt by the rejection of the surrogate son, now seems intent on killing off the prospect of the first black president in our history. Obama did the right thing by cutting the ties definitively, although it came relatively late in the game and much damage had been done.

Polls are notoriously fickle, but Obama’s once double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton nationally has melted into a virtual tie. She appears to be closing the gap in North Carolina and pulling somewhat ahead in Indiana.

On the other hand, he has countered the bad news by unveiling a new superdelegate or two every few days. In a week or two he actually may surpass her once massive lead in superdelegates—even if she nets another 10 or 12 elected delegates on Tuesday.

Should she do well that day she will have a great psychological advantage, even if she cannot overcome the strong numerical lead in delegates he has maintained for long weeks now.

The question then becomes, will that psychology swing masses of superdelegates over to her side?

I think not, but it will give the Clintons talking points galore and could further erode Obama’s situation. They could carry the fight all the way to the convention, giving him less time to retool for the general election.

The question keeps popping up: Are the Clintons really trying to damage Obama for the general election so that she can become the candidate in 2012?

Her supporters say “no,” she is just in there fighting for what she believes is an attainable goal. Others, of course, are less charitable.

The coming weeks will provide the answer. If she makes it clear she wants to carry the fight to the convention floor, the answer is yes. If she finds some graceful way out in June, she will be putting her party first.

Of course the so-called “party elders” may just get together and bring Obama all the superdelegates he needs to win well before the convention, which is the way I see things going right now.

But, like the making of sausages, it ain’t gonna be a pretty sight to see.

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Don Rose, an icon in the liberal-progressive community of Chicago and former press secretary to Dr. Martin Luther King, is a regular political analyst for The Chicago Daily Observer.