If, as many are speculating, former Speaker Denny Hastert resigns his Congressional seat in early November, it could set up a truly bizarre spectacle on Feb. 5, 2008: the winner of the general special election to fill the unexpired term (likely to be held that day) could simultaneously lose his primary for the regular term. That would not just be a lame duck, but a duck born lame.
As the scenario is developing it seems likely that Hastert will step down then. If a seat in congress will be vacant for more than 180 days the governor must call a special election. In this case there would be two, a special primary before the regular primary and a special general. The special primary would probably be in late December or early January. It would almost certainly be a low turnout affair.
Most observers think the scenario has been set up to help Kane county-based businessman Jim Oberweis, who has much of the Hastert team working on his campaign. Certainly Oberweis has the most resources in the race. But extremely low turnout elections almost always go to the candidate with the superior organization. Though State Sen. Chris Lauzen (R-Aurora) is cash-poor, he has one of the most enthusiastic and largest grass-roots armies in the state – all based in the population-rich eastern part of the district. That army has carried him to easy victories for over a decade even with occasionally furious opposition from the local Republican establishment. His people will get out to vote for their man even if the election is held in a blinding blizzard on Christmas Day. It may be just what Lauzen needs to offset Oberweis’ superior resources – at least for the special primary. Also in the field is Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns. Without money, grassroots muscle, or name recognition the only role Burns is likely to play is as a safety valve for establishment types who loathe Lauzen and can’t stomach the idea of calling Oberweis their guy.
On the Democratic side 2006 nominee John Laesch is back. He is opposed by Geneva businessman Bill Foster, who was just endorsed by Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. Rounding out the field is St. Charles attorney Jotham Stein. Though most pundits have yet to figure it out, Giannoulias is the shrewdest young operator with the best political instincts in the Illinois Democratic party. His endorsement means a lot and will bring a lot of volunteers to bear on Foster’s behalf. But Laesch is the Moveon.org candidate. The partisans of this far-left organization increasingly hold the Democratic party hostage. Most aren’t quite clear what Christmas is all about – and those who do don’t care. Nothing will slow them from coming to the polls (unless, perhaps, If Giannoulias persuades Gov. Blagojevich to schedule the special primary election during Ramadan). In a low-turnout primary they could be decisive.
Some Republican officials are stewing over the whole scenario. The governor must call the date of special elections, but has some latitude on when he will schedule them. Conventional wisdom says that scheduling the special general election on the regular primary date would give a huge advantage to the Democratic nominee as a large influx of Democrats are expected to turn out and cast a ballot for their favorite son, Sen. Barack Obama. It is not at all hard to imagine a scenario in which Lauzen and Laesch have cleared their respective special primary elections; one wins the special general election on Feb. 5; while the superior resources for both Oberweis and Foster kick in for the regular primary and they each win their respective primaries the same day. Going for the most bizarre happening, the 14th could go from being represented by the former Speaker of the House to being represented for a year by the darling of the Daily Kos crowd.
While I had previously considered Oberweis the odds-on favorite for the regular elections, the picture has gotten a little murkier. In order to win, Oberweis must split the vote-rich eastern part of the district where Lauzen’s grass-roots strength runs very deep. Then he must win substantially in the central portion of the district while rolling the table in the west. Oberweis learned a lesson from his failed bid for the U.S. Senate nomination in 2002 when he emphasized money and did not have strong ground support. Since then, he has produced truly excellent grass-roots efforts. But he has never faced an opponent as skilled in grass-roots politics as Lauzen is. In calls around the district last week, I was startled to hear activists in the east almost uniformly behind Lauzen while out west they were undecided between Lauzen and Oberweis. That is exactly the opposite of what Oberweis needs – and if it continues could well be the formula for a stunning Lauzen upset.
I suspect two things that could be strengths are acting as stumbling blocks to Oberweis right now; the tacit support of Hastert – and Oberweis’ own strong previous performances within the district when he ran statewide. The support of even the most powerful of retiring officials is a double-edged sword: good to have, but one must be careful not to presume victory because of it. Despite the two George Bushes, Republicans are leery of anything that smacks of dynasties. Everyone must establish their own props. In his previous races, Oberweis was something of a local competing against outsiders. With this one, he loses the outsider image. And it’s a whole different ballgame when you’re competing as a local against another local. Oberweis previous record in the district is not as relevant as some of his team may think.
There is no doubt that, with his superior name recognition throughout the district and his ample ability to self-fund, if Oberweis works the field as relentlessly and effectively as he has in the past and avoids any significant blunders, he will win. But if he thinks he can relax his ground game, he is very likely to lose.

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Charlie Johnston is a well-versed grassroots expert, journalist, former radio talk-show host. He is a regular columnist for The Chicago Daily Observer and a member of its editorial board.