It’s Obama: Do the Math!
The fat lady is about to begin her aria.
The Democratic nomination is all about the delegates, so here are the numbers prior to the Wisconsin primary and Hawaii caucus on Tuesday Feb. 19:
Barack Obama has 1,116 pledged delegates—won in primaries and caucuses; Hillary Clinton has 989, with 2025 needed for nomination. A handful is pledged to others, such as John Edwards.
There are 18 more states and territories to yet to vote, with a total of 1,078 delegates to be selected.
Of these, three big ones—Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania with a total of 492 delegates—are believed to be Clinton’s “firewall.” Let’s assume she carries these strongly with an average of 56 percent and thus gains 276 more delegates to Obama’s 216. (If there are any surprises here they will be to Obama’s benefit as his momentum can seriously reduce the spread.)
That leaves a total of 586 delegates in states where Obama is strongly favored, such as Wisconsin, Hawaii, Oregon, Vermont and North Carolina. He could win these almost as big as the recent blowouts in the Chesapeake area. Puerto Rico’s might be tipped to Clinton while the rest are at least even—but likely to go Obama. Let’s say, conservatively, he gets 53 percent of the remaining 15.
He would thus gain 311 more delegates bringing his total to 1,643 and hers to 1,540. He would lead her by almost as many as he does at this writing, give or take a few.
Then there are the 795 superdelegates, who can vote for whomever. According to the Associated Press, Obama has 163 committed to him; Clinton has 242 committed to her, though their commitments are not binding. That still leaves him ahead in total delegates with 1,806 to 1782. (This with his count underestimated and hers overestimated for the sake of caution.)
He also leads her now in the popular vote by nearly 690,000—or about 400,000 even if you include the disputed totals from Florida, which are not to be officially counted because of Democratic Party rules. (She is trying desperately to change the rules and permit the delegates she won in Florida to be counted.)
Obama is also likely to be leading her by a goodly margin in the popular vote when all the primaries are done.
Now it’s time for some 390 uncommitted superdelegates to decide. These are senators, members of congress, governors and party officials who are interested in winning the election and holding the party together.
Do they dare vote against the popular will—perhaps against their own constituencies—to help out the Clintons? Will they risk breaking up the party itself, as happened in 1968?
Fat chance.
Many dislike the Clintons or they would already have committed to the New York senator. Many party pros believe Clinton at the top of the ticket will be costly to congresspersons in marginal districts and other officials down the ballot. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has already signaled she prefers Obama.
They will also be looking at those continuing polls showing Obama running far better against John McCain than does Clinton.
It’s even possible that some presently committed to her will peel away when they see which way the wind is blowing.
It is far more likely most will break for Obama—perhaps well ahead of the Denver convention, in order to have unity and good will prevail there.
They will likely find some way to seat the disputed Florida and Michigan
delegations, as long as it doesn’t upset the balance of votes for Obama.
Inevitable?
I hate to use the word, since it was applied to Clinton for so long—but Obama has to be the odds-on favorite.
____________________________
Don Rose, a longtime leader of independent politics in Chicago, is political columnist for The Chicago Daily Observer
Where’s Rahm Emanuel? Is he in the witness protection program until this blows over?
Obama is trying to end the nomination process early on specious math; he is trying to use the Bush technique of stealing the Democratic nomination on the sly.
This contest was over in IOWA, but the “dying horse” keeps kicking back. First it was in New Hampshire, then the so-called Super Tuesday, and now another sub-Super Tuesday ? How many lives does a horse have anyway ? This contest was over in IOWA, the rest is/are the kicks of “dying horse.”
this is great i am glad that we the people get to have the say all i can say is that Mrs. Clinton should have never been in this position if she was the overwelhming favorite what happen well i can tell you. ITS THE AMERICAN PEOPLE this is our country not the CLINTONS or OBAMAS and i am very disappointed that HILLARY is now attacking OBAMA! a few weeks ago she was the one saying that BARACK was mad becuase he is LOSING hmmm be careful what you say…..HILLARY i am still undecided about who i will support but i am leaning to OBAMA for this reason. I belive OBAMA can change our image around the world thanks to BUSH we have a horribly image amongst international society! atleast he gives us a chance to get back in good grace with other countries and when we as american travels we are not treated like dirt because of our president being a dictator. those are just my thoughts. TW
“I belive OBAMA can change our image around the world”
Can we spare the image consultants for Britney Spears and actually get some responsible Democratic leadership?
JBP
OMG.. Please read this news from NPR
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18958566
This is a pretty ridiculous scenario. The fact that this was even printed speaks loudly of the fact that nobody outside of Chicago has ever heard of this newspaper, let alone this nobody columnist.
Great article!
If the roles were reversed right at this moment and Hillary Clinton had won 9 straight victories and tied in Super Tuesday, Clinton and the DNC establishment would call for Obama to end his candidacy for president, in order for the DNC to unite against the GOP in the fall.
However, that is not the scenario.
The writing is on the wall that Senator Obama is THE BEST candidate of the democratic party that has an opportunity to beat McCain in the fall.
Obama has won across the country throughout various regions, appealing to voters in the rural and urban communities, across races, ethnicities, sex, class, profession, age, etc…
I thought this was what the democrats had always been waiting for and dreaming about after some formidable, but stale candidates in the past.
Obama is running to be president of the UNITED STATES of America, while Clinton only thinks she needs to run for the big states, traditionally democrat with the most delegates in that state.
Obama has appeal across demographics, has Obamicans (Republican Obama supporters) and independents.
Americans are voting to turn the page in history.
Why is the DNC establishment and the Clintons trying to keep us in the same place or take us back to the 1990′s? Yes, the 90′s were a fruitful time for many Americans economically, under BILL Clinton’s administration. However, the country and world is a VERY different place compared to that time. What happened back then, cannot happen now. America must look FORWARD!
Ideally, I would like for Senator Clinton to gracefully step aside, unite with Sen. Obama and the DNC, in order to take on the Republicans.
Millions of Americans across various demographics see something special and needed right now–in Sen. Obama, especially our young people, who ARE the future after all.
Regardless, if it is Obama’s stance against the war, inspirational speeches or just Clinton-Bush dynasty fatigue…Americans have a right to vote for who they want to and for whatever reason. Americans deserve a change of direction in our country’s leadership and the way government plays a role in our lives.
Thus far, Obama is the only one who appears to deliver what Americans needs– a Change that we can believe in!
Continue to turn the page America, we are ready.
Obama has not been vetted. The public is being sold upon his charisma and youth, but he has no record of accomplishment. No one knows what his positions are on the issues other than he wants to end the war instantly.
I knew Jack Kennedy, Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine, Obama is no Jack Kennedy.
Heavyweight Boxer Billy Conn had Joe Louis beaten on points. His corner man kept telling him ‘You’ve won. Stay a away from him. It’s all over!’
Billy Conn wanted knockout.
Joe Louis won by a Knockout.
When asked, why he did not stay away from Louis and take the Championship that was ‘in the bag’ Conn replied, ‘What’s the point of being Irish, if you can’t be stupid?’
The Democrats, like my Celtic co-sanguinary bi-peds, will do a Billy Conn.
Anyone who thinks that the CLintons ( Two For One) are out of this brawl, wait for the guys with the towels and the smelling salts to tell you what happened.
crat3, it’s Clinton who is trying to steal this election with illegal maneuvering to seat MI/FL and backdoor deals to buy off the superdelegates.
Dan, The thing is that Clinton *has* been vetted, and the American public has decided they don’t like her. how do you explain the fact that she’s almost 6 points worse against McCain in the general. That polls show Obama winning IA, NV, CO (enough states to put us over the top) by 7-17 while she loses them by 4-14? That the overwhelming majority of red-state democrats believe she is worse for our downticket chances according to the NY Times? These are arguments without a leg to stand on.
An informed electorate likes to know what it is buying… I can find no label for Candidate O…
Candidate H at least has the benefit of being familiar.
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