This odd stew of a Republican with a pinch of libertarianism, a soupcon of conservatism, a dash of racism and a whiff of crypto-fascism was not supposed to make it this far this long.

On September 10, 2001, Rudy Giuliani, like George W. Bush, was sliding downhill. New Yorkers were tiring of his high-handed antics, such as trying to cut off funding for an art museum because a painting displeased him. His race relations were disastrous, then came his very public marital high-jinks, trying to move his girl friend into the mayoral mansion while his wife was still living there.

The careers of both Rudy and W, needless to say, were saved the next day.

Giuliani talked tough—to millions he was inspirational—though city firefighters complain bitterly about his deeds. He actually tried to extend his mayoral term by fiat because of the attack, but couldn’t get away with it.

Nevertheless he became “America’s mayor.”

So this cross-dressing New Yorker, pro-choice on abortion, supporter of gay marriage and gun control (if only for big cities, as he says now) declares for president. His libertarian positions and serial adulteries are supposed to disqualify him immediately with the religious right and eliminate him from contention.

But he stubbornly remains on top of every national poll to the astonishment of every national pundit. He actually picks up the endorsement of televangelist Pat Robertson, leading loony of the political evangelicals, and runs well among them—though other far-right crazies threaten to run a third-party candidate against him if he gets the nomination.

Why?

Go figure.

One answer is that voters are ignoring the litmus tests and seeking only the most electable candidate in the face of a likely Democratic 2008.

Then comes the likelihood that “security” over-rides every value of the “values voters.” Giuliani embodies the most aggressive, Cheney-esque positions on the Middle East, exemplified by super-hawk, neo-con advisors such as Norman Podhoretz and Daniel Pipes.

He makes points with those opposed to his positions by taking them head-on with a bit of cajolery saying he’s bad, but not as bad as they think. To the NRA he says he won’t fight them once he’s gone from wicked New York. To the pro-life crowd he promises Scalia-clone Supreme Court justices.

Most of all, he pillories Hillary, constantly invoking her evils, portraying her as a combination of Lady Macbeth and the Wicked Witch of the West, convincing all that only he can zap this giggling blonde menace.

It’s a good strategy. Rousing the right to unite against Clinton is probably the only way a Republican can win next year—though current polls show her defeating even the tough guy from her current home state.

What makes Giuliani ultimately vulnerable—in the primaries or eventually the general—is all of the above converging against him, particularly a divided right. But if he manages to win the nomination, what makes him dangerous is that he has the potential to carry some marginally conservative Democratic states such as New Jersey and Pennsylvania—and could keep Ohio Republican though it seems now to be leaning Democratic.

Perhaps the current trials of his crooked pal Bernard Kerik, whom he boosted for head of homeland security, will bring about a reassessment of Giuliani’s leadership. But at the moment he appears to be the only Republican with a shot at winning next year.

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Don Rose is a veteran Chicago strategist and pundit—as well as famed restaurant critic—who was Dr. Martin Luther King’s press secretary during the historic civil rights imbroglios in Chicago. He is a regular columnist for The Chicago Daily Observer.