Rumors abound of Republican leaders, both great and small, diligently working to persuade Jim Oberweis to step aside as the Republican nominee for Congress in the 14th district. Much of the party has been in shock since losing the seat long held by former speaker Denny Hastert in a special election in early February. I am not sure how a party in apparent disarray will advance itself by adding yet another element of public chaos into the mix.

First of all, for whom should Oberweis step aside? Unless the political reincarnation of Ronald Reagan is waiting in the wings such a move would only underline the tumult in the GOP without improving chances of taking back the seat.

The most important element in any political movement or campaign is a clear, credible, coherent and compelling message. It is more important than money. It is the wellspring from which an energized base of determined volunteers is developed. The second most important element is that energized, organized base of determined volunteers. Those volunteers are most effective when they are stakeholders in the candidacy or movement; when they are collaborators with, not tools of, the candidate or movement leadership.

When a political movement has achieved success, over time, the supposed political professionals begin to develop the conceit that they are the masters of the universe; that it is their mastery of political mechanics, not a compelling message, that drives victory. When this attitude becomes predominant, rot has already begun to take hold. In this decade Republicans have kidded themselves that their masterful turnout machine was responsible for their success. But in 1994, when Newt Gingrich led the GOP to a successful takeover of the House after 40 years in the wilderness, Republicans had neither a 72-hour program nor micro-targeting. What they did have was a powerful, coherent message that the public believed the GOP might actually mean. It was that which transformed the political landscape.

The second most difficult problem a Republican federal candidate in a tough race can have is the lack of money. It creates problems in getting the message out. The worst problem such a candidate can have is being targeted and, thus, ‘helped’ by the national party. It solves the money problem at the cost of destroying the message and demoralizing the volunteer base.

When those really ugly, ham-handed commercials hit the airwaves – you know, the ones that backfire badly, they are almost always produced by the national party. The first that a poor candidate knows about them is when he sees them on TV or in his own mailbox – and frantically has to figure out how to do effective damage control of what his party has done to him. Because of election rules forbidding collusion between the candidate and his party, the candidate really does not know what they are going to do to him in the name of helping him. At the very best, it erodes or destroys the message he has worked so hard to try to craft.

When the party sends in its top pros to direct volunteer efforts, the first thing those pros do is let existing volunteers know that they are nothing but cogs in a machine; that their opinion and advice is unwelcome and unneeded and their only purpose is to follow orders in the grand adventure these pros are living in their dreams of later hooking on with some Washington media firm. Overnight the Washington boys will turn a committed, enthusiastic volunteer base into a sullen, frustrated, demoralized crew. It has happened in every race I have been involved with in which the candidate had the misfortune of being targeted by Washington. An effective volunteer army not only knocks on doors and makes calls, but gives a campaign feedback on what they are hearing at those doors and from those phone calls – feedback that is more valuable and reliable than any polls. And as the volunteers see the campaign responding to and acting on that feedback, they get even more committed and energized. But once the pros come in, that all comes to an end – and a volunteer who offers valuable information is told to shut up and follow the script the pros have provided. Meanwhile the pros take credit for any successes while blaming the volunteers or the candidate for any failures. You lose the message and get a 72-hour-program…and then are baffled when collapse comes.

In 2006 I was privately screaming to everyone I knew in both Washington and Springfield that our message was “…our crooks are not as bad as their crooks…” and that was not a winning message for Republicans. The one consolation I took from the blistering defeat we in the GOP took was that we would get the message from the voters and mend our wicked ways. Things have not changed a whit in Washington. We still don’t have and aren’t even bothering to look for a credible, coherent message.

If things are bad in Washington, they are even worse in Illinois. Here we have five identifiable corrosive factions of Republicans that, like roving bands of rival warlords, do little or no damage to the real opposition while engaging in incessant internecine destruction, giving any transcendent, unifying leaders little chance to emerge. We shoot survivors in their cradle.

First, there are the arsonists. You know that bunch: in 2006 they declared anyone who did not support Oberweis in the gubernatorial primary a heretic who should be burned at the stake. This year they declared that anyone who DID support Oberweis in the congressional primary was a heretic who should be burned at the stake. They don’t get excited about supporting someone and are only happy when they have someone they are committed to destroying. While priding themselves on their brutal honesty, one quickly realizes it is the brutality, not the honesty, that excites them. Second we have the looters. They rise until they reach a point where they can use their position to enrich themselves. They consider it a successful political career if they make a mint regardless of how bad they damage the party. Then there are the quislings, those who are busy selling out to save their hides, making ads for Obama, voting to raise taxes, always looking for a means to advance themselves at the expense of their party – the Vichy French, as it were. Fourth we have the clueless, those lovely souls who mean well but think salvation is to be found in the next iteration of the 72-hour-program and never pause to think that maybe we ought to actually stand for something and mean it. Finally there are what I call the diplomats of doom or the Scottish Lords. These are always looking to find a way to negotiate surrender to the Democrats before the battle begins in exchange for some crummy little perk. If the Democrats promise to take us over the cliff with taxes and spending, our GOP diplomats of doom promise to take us over that cliff only half as fast. And they wonder why the rank and file don’t rally to their flag.

Having described these structural problems with the GOP, Oberweis still offers the GOP the best chance of taking back the seat in the 14th. But the chance is small and will only come if he adopts a powerful message that transcends his old persona and the party’s deep dysfunctions. He starts with a powerful advantage: he has money and the national party is not going to come in and screw up his message or his volunteer base if he develops one.

First, he needs to do a 1982-style Chuck Percy commercial and get it on the air immediately. A commercial that, with humility, says, “I got the message.” He needs to abandon the bombast that has characterized previous campaigns. Stick to a positive message that reiterates the classic Republican themes of less taxes, lower spending, an opportunity society and peace through strength. For April and May he should cut back severely on major public appearances and concentrate on individual meetings with all his county chairmen and key activists at breakfast, lunch and dinner tables. His role in these meetings should not be to tell these people who he is, but to genuinely seek their advice and find how he can actively engage them in his campaign. Do these relentlessly and certain patterns will emerge, issues that are of transcendent importance across the district. The themes he discovers in these meetings will become more important and central to the fundamental message he develops than any polling he can possibly do. And it will carry the powerful benefit of making the people he has met with into committed stakeholders in his success as they see him genuinely incorporating key elements of their advice into his campaign. It will energize them. They will find a way to organize themselves if he does it seriously, sincerely and relentlessly – and will give Republicans in that district heart in a heartless year. Finally, as the summer begins he needs to adopt and stick to a “new Nixon” strategy throughout the rest of the campaign. Become the thoughtful, genuine, generous man he often is in private conversation and as described in a powerful public correspondence by his daughter with Chicago Tribune columnist Eric Zorn recently. Abandon entirely the supposedly bold, but actually gimmicky, often caustic, and actually desperate-looking maneuvers that have characterized his previous campaigns, particularly at the most intense and critical moments. Doing this won’t guarantee victory in what looks to be a very tough year. But it gives a real chance of it, will give heart to Republican activists, and will leave Oberweis proud of having genuinely defended the faith in a noble way regardless of the outcome.

Now, in the interests of full disclosure and to head off those commenters who always greet any analysis I do with the charge that I am trolling for clients, I am not taking political clients this year. In fact, come the fall, while I will still be episodically active in Illinois, it will no longer be either my home state or primary base of operations. But I would dearly love to see an authentic renaissance of genuine Republican unity and strength built around a coherent message that flows from something greater than mere personal ambition in this state that has been home to Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses S. Grant and Ronald Reagan.

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Charlie Johnston is a grassroots expert who has worked for Republican candidates for many years. He is a regular political analyst for The Chicago Daily Observer.