Bill Foster’s decisive, six-point win over Jim Oberweis in Saturday’s special congressional election is both a combination of a perfect storm and a harbinger of bluing to come. The latter point has national and local Republicans really singing the blues: they may be losing another three congressional seats here.

Let’s look at the rosiest (for the Repubs) construction first.

This once staunch GOP district turned blue because (a) there was some general discontent with the recently resigned incumbent, Dennis Hastert, (b) the Democrats wound up with a smart, wealthy candidate remarkably well attuned to the district, (c) Oberweis was a dramatically odious candidate who happened to be nominated over an even more mean-spirited opponent, and (d) turnout was tiny, unreflective of a general election, and therefore things could be reversed come the rerun in November.

Foster had a much harder and narrower than expected primary race against John Laesch, the poorly funded favorite of the progressive net-roots, who, according to early polling, seemed to far too liberal to win the general election. Once nominated, however, Foster was able to bring the disparate elements together.

Contrast this with Oberweis—himself divisive—who triumphed over the similarly nasty Chris Lauzen in a primary where Republicans were asked to select their favorite Menendez brother. The winner was unable to bring the sides together—reflective of a growing problem in Illinois’s shrinking Republican circles.

So this was a one-off situation and perhaps they can they get it together for the fall election?

Therein lies the rub.

This will be a huge Democratic year in Illinois, especially if Barack Obama is the nominee, which still seems most likely. Even without the straight-party lever, blue ripples will run far down the ballot. At risk are the GOP’s 10th District where Mark Kirk will be fighting an already growing blue tide; the open 11th District where Jerry Weller has quit and a popular Democratic state senator currently has the upper hand; and the closely contested 6th District won narrowly in 2006 by Peter Roskam.

Democrats would be expected to increase their majorities in both houses of the legislature as well, which means they likely will again control every aspect of redistricting up to and even after the 2010 election. More of that in a moment.

What is really happening in the 14th and other exurban districts is political and demographic change. It is the change we saw first in suburban Cook County, where the red-blue balance keeps moving toward the Democrats. Similar gains are being made throughout the collar counties—look at Will and Lake.

A group aimed at turning rock-ribbed DuPage blue is taking good advantage of these changes, threatening what was once a national bastion of Republicanism. Just watch some of those down-ticket offices turn color.

And so it goes beyond the collars, making the state increasingly Democratic—and as that happens the Republican Party turns inward ideologically, greedily battling for smaller pieces of a shrinking pie and the serpent swallows its own tail.

The balance of congressional seats before Saturday was 10 Dem-9 Rep, which was an artificial construct considering the statewide vote. The Foster win makes it 11–8. An equitably apportioned delegation, based on the popular vote, would suggest 12 to 7 or perhaps even 13 to 6.

Now if the Democrats actually got together (fat chance) and asked their congressmen to sacrifice a bit of turf for their party (fatter chance), and if they really decided to play Texas-style, cutthroat, politics (more of a chance), they could handily gerrymander the state into a 15–4 split. That division could even happen in November, under optimal electoral circumstances. Redistricting would institutionalize it.

To reword the old song, that’s how Chicago gave birth to the blues.

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Don Rose is a regular political analyst for The Chicago Daily Observer and a veteran participant in progressive politics with both Democratic and Republican candidates.