Democrats, in 2006, gained 30 U.S. House seats, for a 232–203 majority. Despite control, and abysmal congressional approval ratings, Democrats are poised to gain up to 20 more in 2008, primarily in the northeast, where Republicans are reviled and President Bush is toxic.
But Illinois, a heavily Democratic blue state, sends nine Republican and 10 Democratic representatives to Washington. That may change in 2008. Democrats could gain up to four seats, or Republicans could gain one.
Three Downstate Republicans are retiring, and the North Shore’s Mark Kirk (R-10) is vulnerable. Melissa Bean (D-8) will face a big-spending Republican, and could lose her McHenry County district.
The “Five R’s” will dictate the outcomes: Reprieve, Respite, Reprise, Regret, and Reject. Here’s the outlook:
1st District (Chicago’s south side and near-south suburbs): The politics of race hasn’t changed in this district, which was 65.2 percent black in the 2000 census, and has a growing white population. But racial politics has changed. Incumbent Democrat Bobby Rush, a former Black Panther who has served since 1993, is an anachronism. He personifies the politics of victim-hood, wherein blacks expect an entitlement, redressing past discrimination, resulting in a subsistence lifestyle based on government handouts.
But the politics of opportunity, as personified by U.S. Senator Barack Obama, is ascendant. Upscale, ambitious blacks expect to accumulate wealth. They have nothing in common with welfare mothers living in public housing projects, or with street gangs. In fact, the district’s Chicago housing authority’s Taylor, Rockwell and Stateway projects are being razed and residents scattered. Median income in the district is rising.
Rush’s district encompasses parts of the gentrifying 2nd Ward (South Loop), 3rd Ward (Bronzeville), and 5th Ward (Hyde Park), most of the 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th and 21st wards on the near Southwest Side, plus parts of the suburbs of Blue Island, Palos Heights, Orland Park and Oak Forest. In 2000, Obama, then a state senator from Hyde Park, ran against Rush, and lost by 29,950 votes, getting just 30.4 percent to Rush’s 61.1 percent.
In 1992, Rush, then the 2nd Ward alderman, beat incumbent Charlie Hayes (who succeeded Harold Washington in 1983). Since then, Rush’s political acumen has been fading and his political base collapsing. He ran for mayor in 1999, getting just 28 percent. He failed to beat his aldermanic successor and onetime protégé, Madeline Haithcock, in 1995 and 1999, when Rush’s sister ran. He switched and backed Haithcock in 2007, and she lost to white attorney Bob Fioretti, with just 33.9 percent in the runoff. Rush is quitting as 2nd Ward Democratic committeeman.
The 2007 defeat of Dorothy Tillman, a champion of slavery reparations, in the 3rd Ward by union-backed Pat Dowell, further demonstrated the diminishing appeal of victimhood.
For 2008, the operative word is “reprieve.” Rush will easily repulse Bill “Doc” Walls, who got 8.6 percent in the 2007 mayoral race. But 2010 will be different. State Senator Kwame Raoul (D-13), from Hyde Park, Obama’s successor in 2005, aspires to the Illinois Senate leadership. But if he’s not on track to succeed black Senate president Emil Jones, Raoul will run against Rush in 2010. Also angling to take on Rush is State Representative Ken Dunkin (D-5). who faces erstwhile ally Dowell for 3rd ward committeeman.
In the presidential race, some blacks are claiming that Obama is “not black enough,” due to his focus on economic issues. In Illinois’ 1st District, Rush’s agenda may make him “too black,” and beatable. “He’s a street politician,” said one local politician of Rush. “Voters may be ready for a penthouse politician.”
10th District (Cook County’s North Shore suburbs and east Lake County):
Republican Kirk’s winning majority declined from 78,275 (64 percent) in 2004 to 13,651 (53 percent) in 2006. Although Kirk is a liberal on social issues like gun control, abortion, and gay rights, in the past he supported the Bush Administration on Iraq. He is now inching toward a withdrawal timetable, rather than benchmarks.
For 2008, the operative words are “reprise” and “regret.” Democrat Dan Seals ran an underdog race in 2006, spending $1.8 million to Kirk’s $3.5 million. He’s back for a second crack, and Washington Democrats are giving his campaign top priority. But Jay Footlik, a lobbyist and former Clinton White House liaison to the Jewish community, is also running for the Democratic nomination. And therein lies the Democrats’ problem.
Both Seals and Footlik are adopting a get-out-of-Iraq-now posture, but Footlik is running as a “friend of Israel” in a district with a large Jewish population. Many out-of-district Jews have already contributed to Footlik, but Seals, who is black, has been endorsed by U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9) and State Senator Jeff Schoenberg (D-9). The irony is that America’s presence in Iraq has diminished terrorist activity in Israel, and Israel’s government strongly supports Bush’s policy. So being anti-Iraq could be construed as being anti-Israel.
Kirk is a “friend of Israel,” and usually wins 30–40 percent of the Jewish vote. Democrats fear – or, more aptly, regret – that Footlik’s candidacy will damage Seals, undermine his foreign policy credibility, and re-elect Kirk.
8th District (McHenry County and western Lake County): Republicans would like to hang Phil Crane in effigy. They regret his stupidity. Crane was first elected to Congress in 1969, but his sloth and inattentiveness made him vulnerable. In 2002, he beat Bean by 24,649 votes (57.4 percent), after winning in 2000 by 51,141 (61 percent). But Crane refused to get the message, and refused to retire in 2004. Bean beat him by 9,191 votes (51.7 percent), and kept her seat in 2006, defeating Republican Dave McSweeney who spent $5.1 million, by 12,635 votes (50.1 percent).
Bean faces a primary challenge from anti-war candidate Randi Scheurer and Jon Fornick. The Republican will be self-funding businessman Steve Greenberg. 2006 “Moderate Party” candidate Bill Scheurer, who got 5.1 percent on an anti-Iraq platform, is running again as an independent. The outlook: Bean can’t be too liberal in this Republican district. If Bill Scheurer creeps up to 10 percent, Greenberg has a chance to win.
14th District (suburban Fox River Valley, Elgin to Aurora, including DuPage Kane, Kendall, DeKalb and Henry counties): Incumbent Republican Dennis Hastert, the former Speaker of the House, is retiring after 21 years. Hastert won by 38,596 votes (59.8 percent) in 2006, down from a 104,028-vote margin (68.6 percent) in 2004.
The 2008 Republican frontrunner is Jim Oberweis, who lost statewide Republican primaries in 2002, 2004 and 2006. Despite being arrogant, self-righteous, mean-spirited, doctrinaire, and viewing all who differ with him as mortal enemies Oberweis is one swell guy. He is also exactly the kind of Republican who could lose this seat. He is opposed in the primary by 15-year State Senator Chris Lauzen, a fiscal conservative who has been critical of Hastert and Washington Republicans’ lavish funding of pork projects, as well as Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns.
The outlook: Dairy magnate Oberweis will spend $2 million, and fixate on issues like immigration, abortion and gay rights. Lauzen, also a social conservative, will stress fiscal issues. Burns will try to portray himself as the most electable. The Democratic field includes businessman Bill Foster, who will self-fund $1 million, attorney Jotham Stein, and 2006 loser John Laesch. If Lauzen or Burns win the Republican nomination, they go to Washington; if it’s Oberweis, a Democrat can pull an upset. For Republicans, Oberweis means “reject.”
3rd District (Southwest Side Chicago and adjacent suburbs): Dan Lipinski sits in Congress largely because of genealogy. . The son of longtime (1983–2005) incumbent Bill Lipinski, young Lipinski was anointed by Democratic committeemen in 2004 when his dad decided to retire after the primary, but before the election. In the 2006 primary, Dan Lipinski got 54 percent, beating two foes.
Like his father, Dan Lipinski is a social conservative, is anti-abortion, and has been generally supportive of Bush policies in Iraq. Liberal blog sites have been attacking Lipinski, and Mark Pera, a Cook County assistant state’s attorney, is running as an anti-Iraq, pro-abortion alternative, along with Palos Hills Mayor Jerry Bennett and attorney Jim Capparelli. Pera claims both are “shills,” put in the race to split the anti-Lipinski vote. Pera raised more than $180,000. Pera is a Johnny-come-lately reformer, having been staked by Bill Lipinski for a state rep run which he lost—and then going to the senior Lipinski hat in hand asking for help in finding a job (Lipinski got him a berth with the state’s attorney). Now he’s running against “the old boys.” He has turned down an overture to be on “Political Shootout” on WLS (where I frequently appear) because he thinks it’s too conservative. The district includes the 11th, 13th, 19th and 23rd wards in Chicago, and the southwestern suburbs.
The outlook: In a city where the off-spring of the powerful, like royalty, ascend to their family’s throne, young Lipper won’t lose. He will get less than half the vote, but Pera will barely crack 40 percent. The operative word is “reprise”: Pera must run again in 2010.
6th District (western Cook County suburbs): Republican Peter Roskam is getting a respite. He beat the much-hyped Democrat Tammy Duckworth in 2006 by just 4,810 votes (51.4 percent). Duckworth is not running again, and Roskam will easily beat Democrat Jill Morgenthaler.
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Russ Stewart is a regular columnist and political analyst for The Chicago Daily Observer as well as a member of its editorial board. E-mail Russ@russstewart.com or visit his website at www.russstewart.com.