It is just a few weeks before candidates start passing petitions to get themselves on primary ballots. In many districts potential candidates who were expected to file won’t – while surprise entries emerge. Thus it always is as the first stage of speculation gives way to facts on the ground. Here are five districts to keep an eye on:
14th. This is retiring former Speaker of the House Denny Hastert’s district. The Republican battle to replace him is shaping up as one between east and west. While both Dairy Magnate Jim Oberweis and State Senator Chris Lauzen reside in the eastern part of the district, Lauzen has a huge grassroots army in the east where his senate district lies. Oberweis, no slouch at grassroots politics himself, is strong throughout the district. Oberweis has vastly more money than Lauzen. Oberweis is in the unusual position of being the establishment candidate as staffers from Hastert’s old office are filling his ranks. Oberweis will almost certainly sweep through the western part of the district where Lauzen is both unknown and lacks the money to get well-known: Henry, Whiteside, Bureau, Lee and DeKalb Counties. The battleground will be in Kane and Kendall Counties which hold the bulk of the population – and where Lauzen is much better known. But Lauzen cannot just win these counties; He must utterly dominate them to have a chance at offsetting Oberweis’ huge advantage in the west.
It is a race that will pit movement conservatives against each other as both Lauzen and Oberweis are well-regarded among them. Unfortunately, a large minority of movement conservatives seem temperamentally incapable of engaging in tough fights without degenerating to slash-and-burn tactics and rhetoric. This should remain a Republican District, but if the bloodletting gets too ugly, it could give the Democrats an opportunity to pull off an upset.
Oberweis will win the primary. More than a few Lauzen advocates have tried to convince me Lauzen has earned the right to this seat. Maybe he has, maybe he hasn’t. But elections are won with a combination of resources – and Oberweis holds almost all the cards. I like Lauzen but, barring some genuinely major scandal – not just a media concoction – the best he can accomplish is to weaken Oberweis for the general election and generate more fodder for the running storyline on how conservatives love to eat their own. That’s not the sentimental view, but it is a fact.
18th. The pending retirement of incumbent Ray LaHood leaves this district wide open. Early talk centers around the very young State Rep. Aaron Schock of Peoria, State Rep David Leitch of Peoria and LaHood’s son, Darin, a Peoria attorney. Schock looks to have picked up a lot of early support from County Chairmen, including Tazewell County Chairman Demetra DeMonte. I always watch Tazewell County closely as it has a large cadre of committed activists who, when united, influence the vote far beyond their own back yard. (I always advise statewide candidates to get the Morton Ladies – because their united support is worth about nine counties.) DeMonte is a driven chairman whose intensity often inspires her activists but occasionally burns them out.
Schock, at only 26 years old, is a bit of a boy wonder. He won a write-in campaign for a seat on the Peoria School Board when he was only 19, an astonishing feat. In 2004 he beat incumbent Ricca Sloan for the statehouse – then won re-election in 2006. The latter is perhaps the more amazing feat as it is a Democrat-leaning district and he survived the ’06 tsunami that swept away every other Republican who was at all vulnerable. At about this stage in a boy wonder’s career, though, voters frequently decide to slow them up a bit – not out of opposition so much as to keep their feet planted on the ground. But if there is any boy wonder likely to buck that trend, though, it is Schock. His specialty has been beating long odds.
Darin LaHood will benefit from his father’s name. It is familiar and comfortable to the district’s voters. Even so, Illinois Republicans are more leery of dynastic politics than Illinois Democrats are. LaHood will have to work hard to establish early his own credentials or he will fade fast.
Leitch suffers from the same disadvantage all downstate legislators face when contemplating a move up to the federal level – the meandering geography of downstate Congressional Districts. The 18th takes in parts of 19 counties. Leitch is only known in a few of them. But he is steady and mature. If voters decide they’re not enthused about a dynasty and want to slow up young Shock a bit, Leitch is a comfortable fit. Regardless of who wins the primary, the district will almost certainly remain Republican.
But people who are getting ready to give Ray LaHood a gold watch and a retirement party may want to hold off just a bit. He’s certainly retiring from Congress but not necessarily from politics. He may well be a candidate for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2010, when he could run full-time without being hampered by his duties in Washington.
8th. In this suburban district which takes in the western half of Lake County, the northwest corner of Cook and a slice of McHenry, incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean looks safe. At this stage former pro hockey player and businessman Steve Greenberg is the only announced candidate for the Republican nomination. Unfortunately he isn’t generating much enthusiasm among activists in the district. He has money of his own to put in the race, but thus far it seems that is more likely to keep out other less well-heeled candidates who could compete more strongly with Bean than it is to have her fearing him. This, of course, could change dramatically. Some candidates have a stronger growth curve than others. Thus far, though, almost every activist I have spoken with is distinctly unimpressed with him.
It is a Republican-leaning district. Next year is likely to be a much better Republican year than most pundits are now forecasting. But unless a stronger candidate emerges or Greenberg suddenly catches fire, this district is likely to stay in the Democrats’ column.
15th. Incumbent Republican Tim Johnson whipped up a bit of a firestorm when he signed on to the Democrats ‘defeat and retreat’ resolution on the Iraq War. There were angry threats of a primary challenge. The 15th, which meanders down the middle eastern part of the state, encompasses Champaign and Bloomington and is a solidly conservative – and Republican – district. But Johnson is legendary for working his district. He personally makes hundreds of constituent calls every day. He acted quickly to damp down the furor, conceding it was a mistake, and seems to have calmed everyone down. McLean County Chairman John Parrott, both a solid movement conservative and a shrewd party activist, has forgiven Johnson the lapse and is fully supportive. That should end the controversy. But it will be interesting to watch the filings, just in case.
10th. Incumbent Republican Mark Kirk drives movement conservatives nuts. He is to the left of many Democrats on the abortion issue. He not only supports fetal stem cell research; he wants to make Chicago the national center for such research. But he has been a very good fit for this most peculiar district perched on the wealthy shoreline of Lake Michigan in Lake and Cook Counties. Most serious activists concede that a genuinely conservative Republican candidate would merely deliver the seat to Democrats. Those activists have grumbled, but for years were mollified by Kirk’s strong, unwavering stance in support of national security.
But Kirk got a scare in 2006 when Democrat Dan Seals came within six points of him in the general election. It was not as close as it looked, as even the most conservative pollsters estimate the foul climate cost Republican candidates nationwide at least six points on election day. But shortly after the new Congress was seated Kirk voted for the Democrats’ ‘defeat and retreat’ resolution, tearing away the fig leaf that had kept him connected to his party’s rank-and-file. I was at a meeting of 10th district township chairmen shortly after the vote. I expected the conservatives to be angry, but I was stunned at the vehement bitterness of moderate chairmen over the vote. Only two people in the room spoke up in Kirk’s defense – and neither was particularly passionate.
Seals is back for another run – and Democrats are targeting the district this time. Kirk will almost certainly survive any primary challenge, but he will face the race of his life in the general. Democrats will be energized over this district and Republicans disgruntled even if it turns into a big Republican year. Unless Kirk finds a way to recapture his national security bonafides, he is in grave danger of losing the seat regardless of how the year plays out. On the up side, if he survives this cycle he is probably safe for life in that district.
***
Charlie Johnston, member of the editorial board of The Chicago Daily Observer, is a grassroots political organizer