There’s a mad, multi-candidate scramble for the Democratic nomination for Cook county state’s attorney, not only because the office is a giant plum but because its outcome has not always been determined by the Democratic machine.

Running as an independent Dem in 1980, a fellow named Richard M. Daley trounced the “slated” Alderman Ed Burke and went on to upset the two-term Republican incumbent Bernard Carey (yes, a Republican won the office in 1972 in an upset with strong racial ingredients).

Then, when Daley won the 1989 mayoral race he appointed an old-line black politician, Cecil Partee to fill his term. In the 1992 race for a full term, Partee was weakened by a race-based primary battle against a north side alderman and subsequently lost to Republican Jack O’Malley in yet another race-tinged election—the last time the GOP held a countywide office.

O’Malley was later upset by the machine candidate, Richard Devine, who served three terms, then announced his retirement.

Thus, a primary scrum featuring the more-or-less “slated” white machine alderman, Tom Allen, who is flooding the air with TV spots; an “independent reform” candidate, County Commissioner Larry Suffredin of Evanston, and a popular black alderman, Howard Brookins, hoping to consolidate the African American vote in light of a split white vote.

The field is rounded out by Robert Milan, Devine’s first assistant, and Anita Alvarez, his third in command, running on their “experience,” which is tainted by a widespread perception that the office has not been especially vigorous in prosecuting public corruption and maintains omerta on police brutality. Thus they are at the margins and can only draw a small vote from Allen’s base.

Then comes Tommy Brewer, an African American lawyer from Evanston—a perennial candidate who never manages to sufficiently rally the black communities. He might, however, play spoiler for Brookins, who has some income tax and other financial problems he claims are now resolved.

Also poised to spoil the Brookins bid is U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who endorsed Suffredin, along with a galaxy of reform and independent organizations and office-holders including Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky and similar progressive icons. Though Suffredin plays games with the machine, he is a fairly consistent voice for reform on the county board under the leadership of Forrest Claypool. He probably is, as Jackson says, the “purest” of the candidates. (Jackson is taking heat in the black community for the move!).

The machine of course does not want this office in the hands of any outsider of color.
.
Here’s the way it shapes up: Providing he gets funding to run a good black-oriented media campaign, Brookins will get few white votes but has the potential for 36 to 42 percent of the total vote from African Americans—even more if there is the massive turnout expected with Barack Obama at the head of the ticket. This could be reduced of course if Jackson’s endorsement actually yields Suffredin a substantial number of black votes or if Brewer manages to muster more than his expected handful.

Allen running alone would have the potential of 40–45 percent of the total vote, but Suffredin will get a substantial vote along the lake and in the north and west suburbs. If he follows Claypool’s vote pattern he could even outdraw Allen—but that would require a huge TV campaign and we don’t know whether he has the resources or the talent behind him.

Barring a slip of some kind—or insufficient media campaigning—Brookins has the edge here. Suffredin is likely to get most media endorsements and benefit from decent organization in Schakowsky’s constituency. Allen obviously has money and a significant bungalow base.

It’s hard to see either Allen or Suffredin cracking the 40th percentile, even with all the “ifs.” It would require absolute ownership of the white vote or a substantial black breakaway. Neither is yet in the cards and time grows short.

__________________________________

Don Rose is a regular political analyst for The Chicago Daily Observer