There is a fine distinction between a persistent candidate and a perennial candidate. The latter runs repeatedly, and loses. The former runs repeatedly, but loses credibly, not by much, and eventually triumphs.

The epitome of persistence in Illinois politics is Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn. His persistence could pay off. Gov.. Blagojevich’s legal problems could well create a vacancy before 2010, elevating Quinn to chief executive. But when it comes to electoral success, Quinn, age 60, is batting only .500. He’s won four, and lost four.

In 1982, Democrat Quinn was elected commissioner of the Cook county board of tax appeals. In 1986, he lost the primary for state treasurer. In 1990, he won the primary and was elected state treasurer. In 1994, he lost to George Ryan for secretary of state. In 1996, he lost the primary to Dick Durbin for U.S. senator. In 1998, he lost the primary for lieutenant governor.

By then, Quinn was a household name, a political irritant, and a perennial candidate. But he also had some credibility, having won a few times, and coming close other times. In the 2002 primary for lieutenant governor, Quinn faced two obscure challengers, and was nominated and thereafter elected on the ticket with Blagojevich; he was re-elected in 2006.

Quinn is a fixture in state politics, well-respected for his integrity, and untarnished by the scandals of the Blagojevich administration. And, as 2010 approaches, Quinn is a viable contender for governor.

Fast closing on Quinn as a paragon of persistence in Cook County politics is the father-and-son team of Frank Avila and Frank Avila. Avila the Elder, age 70, is currently a Metropolitan Water Reclamation District commissioner. He first ran for the job under the name “M. Frank Avila.” Every two years, in the Democratic primary, three commissioners are nominated for 6-year terms. In 1998, Avila lost, finishing eighth in a field of 14. In 2000, he ran again, finishing fourth in a field of 12.

In 2002, Avila the Younger, an attorney, filed a federal lawsuit accusing one of the slated candidates, Martin Sandoval, of “conspiracy” to disenfranchise voters because he was running for both MWRD commissioner and state senator, and had been quoted as saying he would resign the MWRD nomination after he won the primary. Exercising prudence, Sandoval quit the county race. That left only two slated candidates, with Avila the Elder as the only Hispanic. In an upset, Avila finished third in a field of nine, topping an Irish-surnamed Democratic committeeman by just 2,605 votes.

In 2004 and 2006, Avila the Younger, now age 37, sought to join his father at the MWRD. Although not slated by the party, he had built up numerous contacts with Democratic politicians, had a weekly cable TV show, and was developing a high-profile law practice. In 2004, in a field of 11, he finished fourth; in 2006, in a field of nine, he again finished fourth, trailing the third place winner by just 529 votes. The operative word was “credible.” Despite two defeats, Avila the Younger did not embarrass himself. But he has also made a lot of enemies, and the “sins of the son” appeared likely to be inflicted upon the father.

In 2007, Avila the Younger became counsel for Aaron Patterson, one of four former Death Row inmates who were allegedly tortured by former city police commander Jon Burge and Area 2 officers. The city council has approved a $19.8 million settlement, of which $5 million is allocated to Patterson; a healthy portion of that amount will be apportioned to attorney fees. Avila also called the Hispanic Democratic Organization a “criminal enterprise,” and has represented numerous fired city employees in civil service appeals.

Unlike his feisty son, the mild-mannered Avila the Elder is an indefatigable campaigner who regularly appears at party dinners and picnics, and on cable TV. But young Avila had so incensed the Daley political establishment that the father, despite being an incumbent, was not expected to be slated for the MWRD in 2008. Dean Maragos, a major party contributor, wanted a spot, along with incumbents Kathy Meany and Cynthia Santos. But Santos was out of the country at slatemaking, and the committeemen enacted a rule that only candidates present could be slated. So Avila got Santos’ slot.

Also, before filing, he changed his ballot name to Frank Avila from M. Frank Avila. “That was a smart move,” said one Democratic politician. “A lot of people thought they were voting for the son, not the father.”

• The ensuing Feb. 5 primary outcome was a stunner. In a field of eight candidates, four of them women, Avila finished first, getting 367,731 votes. He fashioned a broad coalition of support, leading the field in Hispanic wards, coming in second in the black wards. He finished among the top three in white ethnic wards, the Lakefront, and suburbs. Women won most of the contested judicial races and the state’s attorney contest, and the four women seeking MWRD spots finished 2–3-4–5. But that didn’t impede Avila the Elder.

• According to official results, incumbent Meany was second with 335,893 votes, followed by dumped incumbent Santos with 334,255 votes; next was Diane Jones, a black from Rickey Hendon’s 27th Ward organization, with 284,923 votes, who was the top votegetter in black wards and townships; and then newcomer Mariyana Spyropoulos, who was first on the ballot, with 306,930 votes. Finishing 6–7-8 were the slated Maragos, who had only 212,917 votes, followed by Derrick Stinson (188,407 votes) and Matt Podgorski (130,713 votes).

Santos’ victory is noteworthy. Her surname is actually Greek, not Hispanic, and she benefits from the fact that Miriam Santos was once city treasurer. She won as an independent in 1996, was a slated candidate in 2002, and now beat the slate again in 2008.

Because of the obscurity of MWRD contests, coupled with the cost of countywide advertising, it is impossible to deliver any discernable message to voters. So gender, ballot position, ethnicity, and name familiarity are the key to success – as was again demonstrated in 2008.

Rumors are afoot that Avila now plans to challenge Commissioner Terry O’Brien for the MWRD presidency in December. O’Brien is part of Team Daley, and the MWRD’s $750 million annual budget means that there are plenty of contractors who donate to the Democratic party. At present, Meany is vice-president, and Gloria Majewski is finance chairman. To oust O’Brien, Avila needs the backing of four other commissioners. His ally, Debra Shore, would be the vice-president. And there are two black commissioners: Pat Horton and Barbara McGowan. One could replace Majewski.

Commissioner Patty Young is allied with O’Brien. So the swing vote is Santos. It could be payback time. Santos was dumped by Team Daley slatemakers, and her husband, State Representative Rich Bradley, was forced to run (and lose) for state senator to make way for Alderman Dick Mell’s daughter. Now she can exact her revenge.

As for Avila the Younger, he could run for the MWRD in 2010, when the terms of commissioners Majewski, Young and McGowan expire. Majewski is expected to retire. Given the growing magic of the Avila name, he would surely win. Or he could shift his sights to the Hispanic-majority 4th congressional district, currently occupied by U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4). Avila is of Mexican-American ancestry, and conservative on social issues, while Gutierrez is Puerto Rican and liberal. If Avila uses his attorney fees from the Patterson case as seed money, he could give Gutierrez a difficult race.

Here’s a look at the Recorder’s primary:

• Who is Gene Moore, and why did he get 520,872 votes? Barack Obama got 743,659 votes in Cook County. Howard Brookins, the black candidate for state’s attorney, got 172,562 votes. Yet Moore, an obscure cipher, devoid of a political base, and utterly dependent on white Democratic committeemen, swept to an easy victory. Call it the Luck of the Irish – or, more appropriately, Moore’s luck in not having an Irish-surnamed woman run against him.

• Moore, who is black, was appointed Recorder in 1999, and was renominated without opposition in 2000 and 2004. In 2006, he was ousted as Proviso Township Democratic committeeman by State Representative Karen Yarbrough, who then began angling for slating for Recorder in 2008. But Chicago Alderman Ed Smith decided he wanted the job, Yarbrough withdrew, and Smith failed to show up for slating. Smith was later endorsed by Daley. In a race between two obscure black men, white voters opted for Moore, the slated candidate, who won the suburbs 221,476–128,324 (63.3 percent) and Chicago 299,396–203,068 (59.5 percent).

This much is certain: Had it been Moore versus Yarbrough, she would have won. And in 2012, somebody Irish will run for Recorder, and beat Moore.

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Russ Stewart writes political analysis for The Chicago Daily Observer and is a member of its editorial board.