I’m here in Denver at the Democratic Convention, and while enjoying it, frankly miss the presence of Mike Royko with whom I palled around with at 10 conventions from 1968 to 1996 (including two Republican ones). My first National Convention was 1952 and this is my 17th convention, and in spite of Royko’s absence one of my two favorites.

The selection of Joe Biden as the vice-presidential candidate is appropriate for many reasons, but I’m lucky because on August 16 I was asked in Paris at a meeting
of Democrats Abroad where I had spoken why I hadn’t supported Biden for President.

I said that if I could choose a President I would have chosen Biden, but in a democracy you have to win, and for a variety reasons I had felt as early as the summer of 2006 that only Barack Obama had a chance of wresting the nomination away from Hillary Clinton, and because I didn’t think she could defeat a Republican in November, 2008 (which is why Rush Limbaugh so vigorously supported her) I wanted to capitalize on Barack’s youth, vision and popularity. Also the idea of inaugurating an African American President three weeks before we celebrate the bicentennial of Abraham Lincoln’s birth was something I thought great for our country as well as for our relationship to the rest of the world which is about 80% yellow, brown and black.

Frankly, I think Biden is gaffed out. This is his moment. And think of this scenario. If Hillary really supports the ticket and it wins, she will only be 68 in 2016, and Biden will be 73, too old to run for President. So 2016 could indeed by Hillary’s year, and any of the issues that the GOP could have or would have used against her this year will be gone by then. Plus she might be able to pass health care legislation in 2009, go on to run for Governor of New York in 2010 and get re-elected in 2014 putting her in a perfect position to run for President in 2016. It is possible that her vice-presidential running mate could be Joe Biden’s son Beau, creating the first vice-presidential dynasty in
American history. Conversely if the ticket were to lose she would get blamed, right or wrong, for a multitude of reasons and the 2012 nomination would go to another person. So she has big self interest in being seen as a vital factor in helping to elect Barack.

You might ask, “What am I smoking?”

The answer is, “I’m not.” But I am inhaling. The atmosphere here is optimistic, but no one wants to take anything for granted. The political memorabilia is selling
like hotcakes and there are tons of parties. The hugfest at this morning’s Illinois caucus breakfast was spontaneous, honest and fun. Barack Obama has already made history. I think he’s going to make a lot more, and McCain will still have his voice in the Senate where he belongs.

By the way, if McCain puts a woman on his ticket for vice-president it will be seen for what it is and will backfire. Women know that Vice-Presidents don’t choose
Supreme Court justices.

Obama knows what he’s doing. Axelrod (Obama’s principal strategist after himself)
know’s what he’s doing. Plouffe (campaign manager) know’s what he’s doing. And this year big labor knows what it’s doing. And there are all sorts of other independent parallel pro Obama campaigns going on as well.

I predict that Obama will win a substantial majority in the electoral college carrying at least half a dozen states by less than 20,000 votes, while piling up
large enough majorities in states like California, Illinois and New York to enable him to have a popular vote majority as well (though I assure you that if he had to, Axelrod would rather win the Electoral College by one vote (or even a tie with the U.S. House breaking it Obama’s way) and lose the popular vote by 1,000,000
than lose the electoral college by one vote and win by 1,000,000 popular votes.

This will not be a Bush/Gore replay.

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Phil Krone, longtime political analyst, joins the Chicago Daily Observer for Election Coverage