Ambition is running amok in Chicago’s Northwest Side 5th congressional district. Much like the Balkan Peninsula after World War I, the area is a land of small, suspicious, territorial and mutually hostile, where politics is the family business, where public offices are a family entitlement, and where ambitious politicians hungrily grab every scrap of power that is not nailed down.

What’s now no longer nailed down is incumbent Democrat Rahm Emanuel’s congressional seat. Emanuel will be resigning in January to become chief-of-staff in the Obama White House.

A special will be set within 120 days of Emanuel’s departure, and the victor of the Democratic primary will easily win the seat. It would not be surprising if eight or more credible Democrats seek the nomination, meaning that 20% of the vote would be enough to triumph. Geography, gender, and ideology will be important criterion in what will be a low-turnout primary.

Emanuel, at age 48, was on track to become Speaker of the House. First elected in 2002, Emanuel ran the Democratic congressional campaign committee in 2006, and is widely credited with masterminding the Democrats’ House takeover. He is now the caucus chairman, the number four position in leadership. When Speaker Nancy Pelosi, age 68, and majority leader Steny Hoyer, age 69, retire, Emanuel was poised to win the top spot — although that might not occur until 2020 or later. An Emanuel speakership would have meant a lock on his congressional seat until 2030 or longer.

The 5th District extends from Chicago’s Lakefront at Lincoln Park west through the 46th and 47th wards, taking in a sliver of the 32nd and 33rd wards, and then west through the 40th, 39th, 45th, 41st and 38th wards to the city limits. It also includes the west suburban municipalities of Schiller Park, Elmwood Park, River Grove, Melrose Park, Northlake and Franklin Park, which have a large Hispanic population.

In the 2008 primary, when 94,406 votes were cast, the ward-by-ward breakdown was as follows: 14 percent in the 47th Ward, 11.4 percent in the 45th Ward, 11.3 percent in the 41st Ward, 9.3 percent in the 38th Ward, 9.2 percent in the 36th Ward, and 8.7 percent in the 39th Ward. About 25 percent came from the suburbs.

Already, the chieftains of the various fiefdoms have begun scheming and plotting, fully aware that Emanuel’s successor could hold the seat for the next 20 years. This is their opportunity. And, equally important, it’s a free shot. None of the potential contenders need give up their aldermanic or state legislative seat to run. Here’s a rundown of the principal combatants:

* The Mell Machine. Alderman Dick Mell (33rd), un-fondly known as Old Gringo among Hispanics, has no shame. He foisted son-in-law Rod Blagojevich on the people of Illinois. Mell got Blagojevich elected state representative in 1992, to Congress in the 5th in 1996, and made such grandiose promises of state patronage to fellow committeemen that Blagojevich narrowly won the governor’s nomination in 2002. After exercising such abjectly poor judgment, Mell should have publicly begged for forgiveness. Not Forgetful Dick.

In 2008, he forced State Representative Rich Bradley to run for state senator, so that Mell’s daughter, Deborah Mell, could take Bradley’s job. Mell’s efforts on behalf of Bradley failed to defeat State Senator Iris Martinez (D-20) – just as Mell’s 2007 efforts on behalf of Vilma Colom failed to oust Alderman Rey Colon (35th). Mell has become a paper tiger.

Nevertheless, Mell is back at the hog trough, and is booming his daughter – who has yet to occupy any office – for Congress.

Advantage: Deborah Mell, age 39, an avowed lesbian, has appeal in the large gay community around Broadway and Montrose. Old Man Mell can still assemble a roving precinct operation of 300 workers, which he can deploy where opportune. And money won’t be a problem. The Mell name is well-known. If she’s the only woman, it helps.

Liability: Deborah Mell has no experience, no message, and no credibility. And other Democratic committeemen are ardently disinclined to reward Mell with another trophy.

* The Banks Boys: Alderman Bill Banks (36th), along with brothers Sam and Ron, and State Senator Jim DeLeo (D-10), run the 36th Ward with an iron fist. The alderman (who is also Democratic committeeman and council zoning committee chairman) and senator have, between them, over $2 million in their campaign accounts. A federal investigation, named Operation Crooked Code, is investigating citywide and ward zoning practices.

In 1996, Banks and Mell cut a deal: Banks backed Blagojevich for Congress, and Mell backed attorney John Fritchey, Sam Banks’ son-in-law, for Blagojevich’s Illinois House seat. Fritchey (D-11), age 44, has since emerged as a strident Blagojevich critic, and was elected 32nd Ward Democratic Committeeman in 2008. He is currently plotting a campaign for Illinois attorney general in 2010, as is Evanston State Representative Julie Hamos (D-18).

A 2009 Fritchey congressional bid is risky. He can count on his in-laws to deliver a huge 36th ward vote, and he has name recognition in the district’s East End. But a loss would cripple a 2010 statewide bid.

Advantage: Fritchey will get 75 percent of the vote in the 36th Ward, which has 9.2 percent of the primary vote. He is a reformer and a liberal, but he must get a big vote in the 46th and 47th wards. Money is not a problem.

Liability: Being the Banks Boys’ candidate in 2009 will not be helpful to his image. If he runs, he better win.

* Laurino Legacy: The late Tony Laurino was 39th Ward alderman from 1964 to 1994, and his dynasty perseveres and prospers. His daughter, Marge, is alderman; his grandson, John D’Amico, is state representative; and his son-in-law, Randy Barnette, is Democratic committeeman.

The elder Laurino was under indictment at the time of his death, charged with hiring his wife, daughter, son-in-law, step-daughter, and a bunch of precinct captains as “ghost” payrollers. But that is now ancient history.

Marge Laurino, age 56, is utterly secure as alderman, but knows that this is her last opportunity to move upward on the political ladder. Should she go to Washington, husband Randy Barnette would get the aldermanic post.

Advantage: Roughly 20 percent of the district’s voters are of Italian-American heritage. The Laurino name is known. If she’s the only woman in the race, she has an edge.

Liability: The Tony Laurino legacy will be rehashed. She lacks big money. And every other female in the race detracts from Marge’s vote outside her ward.

* Cullerton Clan: A Cullerton has been in Chicago’s city council for most years since 1871, and current 38th Ward Alderman Tom Allen, age 56, is related to the Cullerton Clan by marriage. The ward’s Democratic Committeeman is Patty Jo Cullerton, daughter of late alderman Tom Cullerton, who was the nephew of the legendary P.J. Cullerton, longtime Cook County assessor. Allen ran in the 2008 primary for state’s attorney, and lost by less than 10,000 votes. The alderman is looking to run for judge in 2010.

Advantage: Labor unions heavily supported Allen in the 2008 primary, and will again. Also, Allen can expect backing from Alderman Pat Levar and State Representative Joe Lyons (D-19), from the neighboring 45th Ward. That gives him the bulk of the vote in two wards with 21 percent of the primary vote.

Liability: Allen lacks charisma, and is still saddled with close to $200,000 debt from his 2008 campaign.

* The Fighting 47th Ward: Veteran Alderman Gene Schulter (47th), first elected in 1975, was once a protégé of onetime park district boss Ed Kelly, whom he ousted as Democratic committeeman in 2004.

The Ravenswoods/Lincoln Square ward has changed demographically from older and working-class to younger and professional class. Schulter, age 60, had adapted, and is quite popular. In the district’s East End

Advantage: Schulter is well-known in the district’s East End.

Liability: He lacks the money to spread elsewhere.

* 40th Ward: Alderman Pat O’Connor (40th), age 54, who has served in the city council since 1983, is a key ally of Mayor Rich Daley, and ran for state’s attorney in 1990 and 1992. But his ambition seems to have subsided. His endorsement, and the votes of his ward, will be a much-sought prize.

* Undeterred and unelected: Nancy Kaszak, who successfully spearheaded opposition to the 2008 Constitutional Convention referendum, lost congressional primaries in 1996 and 2002. In 1996, she lost to Blagojevich by 7,792 votes, getting 38.4 percent. In 2002, she lost to Emanuel by 11,058 votes, getting 38.6 percent. In the early 1990s, she led opposition to night games at Wrigley Field.

Advantage: She came close twice, and has some residual name recognition.

Liability: She is largely forgotten, her organization has vanished, she has no money, and, in a large field, with several women, she will be lost in the crowd.

* State Representative Sara Feigenholtz (D-12), age 52, a liberal from the East End 46th Ward, has solid name identification, and is quite popular among gay voters. In a multi-candidate field, she could be formidable, but only if she takes 50-60 percent of the East End vote.

* The Vacuum Man: The 41st Ward, nestled on the far Northwest Side, has the city’s only Republican alderman and state representative. It will be Ground Zero in the primary, with over 11 percent of the vote, and no “prince” to protect it from invading hordes of precinct workers bearing allegiance to out-of-ward fiefdoms.

Cary Capparelli, businessman son of former State Representative Ralph Capparelli, may run. The elder Capparelli, who served in Springfield for 24 years, was defeated for re-election as Democratic committeeman in 2008. But the Capparelli organization is skeletal, and young Capparelli is going nowhere.

* Former Clinton staffer Pete Dagher, who got 4,145 votes (4.5 percent) in 2002 primary, will be lucky to crack two percent in 2009.

Others mentioned are gay 44th Ward Alderman Tom Tunney, and former 43rd Ward Alderman Ed Eisendrath, who ran against Blagojevich in the 2006 primary. County Democratic chairman Joe Berrios, who is habitually boosting Hispanics for office, may throw his weight behind Metropolitan Water Reclamation District Comr. Frank Avila, or Gery Chico, who ran for U.S. Senator in 2004.

Not running are county commissioners Forrest Claypool and Mike Quigley, who are aiming for county board president in 2010. Claypool, a close associate of senior Obama strategist David Axelrod, could have had a spot in the Obama White House, but has opted to stay in Chicago.

My early prediction: If East Enders Schulter, Feigenholtz, Kaszak, Mell and Fritchey all run, they fractionalize that vote. If three or more females run, they divide the gender vote, and Laurino can forget about it. If Kaszak, Schulter, Feigenholtz and Fritchey all run, they split the liberal vote. The Big Three are Fritchey, Allen and Schulter, with an edge to Fritchey.

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Russ Stewart is a regular columnist for the Chicago Daily Observer