NIMBY is a well-used acronym for “not in my back yard.” Like the controversy about depositing nuclear waste in Nevada’s Yucca Mountain: nobody wants others’ toxic material, or hazardous residue, in close proximity.

Here’s two acronyms which aptly describe Julie Hamos’ defeat in the North Shore 10th congressional district’s Democratic primary on Feb. 2: NIMCD and ITWY. They mean, respectively, “not in my congressional district” and “it’s the wrong year.”

Hamos, a 12-year state representative, lost to Dan Seals by 25,490-24,531, a margin of 959 votes, getting 46.4 percent of the 52,859 votes cast. And the reasons are multitudinous: She’s from Evanston, is part of U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky’s (D-9) “Jan/Bob Machine”—the Bob being Schakowsky’s husband Bob Creamer who spent a 5-month stretch in federal prison for kiting checks. She has never involved herself in Jewish issues, had no roots in the district, and was generally perceived as a foreigner and opportunist.

A third candidate, Elliot Richardson of Buffalo Grove, got 2,838 votes (5.4 percent).

To Democratic workers, especially in Palatine, Wheeling, and the Lake County portion of the district, Hamos was politically toxic. They had exerted Herculean effort in Seals’ two efforts to oust Republican incumbent Mark Kirk. Seals lost by 13,651 votes (46.6 percent) in 2006, and by 14,906 votes (47.5 percent) in 2008. When Kirk announced his bid for the U.S. Senate, opening the seat, a lot of Democrats felt Seals deserved a third chance.

Hamos was nowhere evident in those campaigns, and in late 2009 moved into Wilmette only after she announced her candidacy. In fact, Hamos real 2010 goal was to run for state attorney general, but that was foreclosed when incumbent Lisa Madigan (D) opted to run for re-election, and not governor or senator.

“She was looking for something to run for,” said one Lake County Democratic activist of Hamos, “and the 10th District was her best available choice. But, to us, Dan (Seals) was the best available choice. He earned another chance.”

But Hamos violated a cardinal political rule – namely: first, poll; second, dispel perceptions; third, assemble clout; and fourth, jump. Hamos did it in reverse. And therein lies the fatal flaw in her campaign.

Encouraged by Schakowsky and a coterie of Springfield legislators, Hamos announced in August, as soon as Kirk vacated the seat. She had a phalanx of supposedly powerhouse politicians behind her: Schakowsky, State Senators Susan Garrett (D-29) and Jeff Schoenberg (D-9), State Representatives Karen May (D-58) and Elaine Nekritz (D-57), Cook County Commissioner Larry Suffredin, and a bunch of Evanston politicians. That gave Hamos instant credibility.

And her media spin was that there was latent “Seals fatigue” among district Democrats, that Seals was a two-time loser, that his organization had evaporated, and that Hamos was the Obama-like candidate for “change.” And then she took a poll. And, according to insiders, the result was stunning: Hamos had lower name identification than the Obama family’s Portugese water dog. Seals was beloved, not reviled, by district Democrats. And nobody knew Hamos.

In short, it was beyond recovery. Hamos’ campaign spent $1.5 million, and targeted women and Jewish households with gender-specific and religious-based ads and mailings. They sent out mailers highlighting her focus on women’s health issues. They trumpeted the fact that Hamos is the daughter of Holocaust survivors. The Jan/Bob Machine sent workers north into New Trier Township (Wilmette, Kenilworth, Winnetka and Glencoe). ,

Nevertheless, a majority of Democratic voters emphatically did not want Hamos in their congressional district.

In Lake County, which has 221 precincts, despite a high concentration of Jewish voters in Buffalo Grove, Riverwoods, Lincolnshire, Deerfield and Highland Park, Seals won 11,006-9,635 (50.5 percent), a margin of 1,371 votes. In Wheeling Township, which includes the south half of Buffalo Grove, Wheeling, Arlington Heights and Prospect Heights, Seals won by 5,653-4,015 (54.8 percent), a margin of 1,638 votes. And Seals won Palatine Township, which includes Barrington, Inverness, and part of Palatine, by 1,485-1,082 (55 percent), and Elk Grove Township by 505-327, a total margin of 2,041 votes.

Overall, in Cook County’s 290 precincts, Seals lost by 412 votes (46.7 percent). The final count was 14,896-14,484, with 1,674 for Richardson, giving Hamos 47.9 percent.

“She (Hamos) lost for two reasons,” said Suffredin, a county commissioner from Evanston. “First, she didn’t do well enough in New Trier to offset Seals’ votes elsewhere. And second, she didn’t have enough time. Given another

month, she would have won. She came real close.” And, adds Suffredin, Seals is perceived among Democrats as a “nice guy.”

In crucial New Trier Township, just north of Evanston, where Hamos poured money and the Jan/Bob Machine dispatched workers, Hamos won by 4,573-3,114 (57.4 percent) over Seals, a margin of 1,459 votes. Richardson got 276 votes. Hamos’ campaign strategists anticipated 5,500 votes, or 70 percent. After all, this was her adopted base. Had Hamos topped Seals by 5,500-2,100, a margin of 3,400, she’d be the Democratic nominee.

Why did Hamos lose? Blame it on NIMBY. Evanstonians are viewed, at least in Wilmette, Winnetka and Glencoe, as snooty and self-absorbed. Evanston already has a congresswoman (Schakowsky). Does Evanston deserve another? Non-Evanstonians think not.

Likewise, in Northfield Township, which contains Northbrook,

Northfield and Glenview, NIMBY also prevailed. Instead of achieving her projected 60 percent, Hamos triumphed by 4,899-3,727 (53.4 percent), with 553 votes for Richardson. Hamos needed 5,500 votes in Northfield.

And there’s a second reason for Hamos’ congressional demise: ITWY. In 2008, when Barack Obama was running for president, turnout in the 10th District congressional Democratic primary was 93,148. It was 40,289 less in 2010, which means that almost half of the Democrats’ liberal base is unenergized.

Had Hamos run in 2008, when the Cook County vote was 50,675, not 2010’s 31,054, she would have won. The Obama-Clinton presidential primary elicited a huge turnout. It was 9,833 in New Trier Township, 14,886 in Northfield Township, 25,956 in the west end, and 42,473 in Lake County.

Seals, like Barack Obama, is of mixed race, and he was the liberal and politically-correct candidate in 2008. He beat Jay Footlik, a lobbyist for a pro-Israel political action committee, by a hefty 75,877-17,271 (81.5 percent) in the congressional primary. But, against Obama in the delegate primary, Hillary Clinton’s five delegate candidates averaged 31,654 votes, while Obama’s five averaged 54,518 votes. Clearly, a lot of white women backed Clinton over Obama.

In 2010, the Democratic primary vote in Lake County dropped from 42,473 in 2008 to 21,805. In New Trier, it dropped from 9,833 to 7,963 in 2010. In Northfield, it declined from 14,886 to 9,179.

The fervent anti-Bush, anti-Iraq, anti-conservative anger that manifested itself against Kirk in 2006 and 2008, and fueled Seals’ candidacy, has dissipated. Ironically, even though Seals is a non-incumbent, he is perceived in 2010 as the “Obama” candidate.

At present, Democrats hold a 257-178 majority in the U.S. House, having gained 29 seats in 2006 and 25 seats in 2008. To resume control, Republicans must gain 39 Democratic-held seats in 2010.

In the Republican primary, the operative acronym was NO-RINO, meaning no “Republican in name only.” Businessman Bob Dold tapped into palpable anti-tax, anti-Obama sentiment, and defeated the favored, better-known, 14-year State Representative Beth Coulson (R-17) by 19,691-16,149 (38 percent) in a turnout of 51,763. Dick Green had 7,595, Arie Friedman 7,250, and Paul Hamann 1,078.

Coulson, of Glenview, is a liberal on social issues, and deemed a RINO. She carried her Northfield Township base by 4,022-2,446 (48.4 percent) over Dold, but a local school referendum in New Trier Township, Dold’s base, engendered a huge Republican turnout, and Dold won 4,039-1,833 (56.6 percent). Dold also ran first in Palatine, Wheeling and Elk Grove townships, and in Lake County. Dold is a staunch fiscal conservative, opposes the Obama health care plan, but is pro-choice on abortion

The Republican turnout increased from 44,967 in 2008 to 51,763 in 2010, while the Democrats’ declined from 93,148 to 52,859. Clearly, the Republicans are energized and the Democrats apathetic.

The outlook: Without a legislative voting record, Dold will be hard to isolate as a supposed far-right conservative. Already, Dold’s internal polling shows him leading Seals by seven points, 42-35 percent. The North Shore’s political environment has undergone an upheaval, from Obama fascination to Obama irritation. Kirk is enormously popular, and will get close to 70 percent in the district.

My prediction: In an ironic role reversal, Dold is the “change” candidate, and Seals’ the status quo insider. Washington Democrats are targeting the district in their “red-to-blue” fundraising effort, and deem it to be one of the few Democratic pickup opportunities in 2010. Anger compels people to vote, but disgust and disappointment doesn’t. Message to Seals: ITWY. Dold will win.

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Russ Stewart is political analyst for The Chicago Daily Observer.