Irrespective of the different plans of the two American presidential candidates, a reduction of American troop numbers is also happening steadily, from 171,000 in October to 145,000 at last blush. At the same time, the size of the Iraqi forces is creeping up, from 115,000 two years ago to 229,000 today. This week the province of Kadisiya, south of Baghdad, became the tenth out of 18 to come under Iraqi, rather than American, operational command.

The Iraqi army, alongside the Americans, recently began a big push against al-Qaeda-linked insurgents in the mixed-sect Diyala province, perhaps now the bloodiest, just north-east of Baghdad. Basra and Anbar provinces, in turmoil a year and a half ago, are quiet.