Phenomenon.

That’s the most overused description of Sen. Barack Obama, but still the most accurate. His skyrocketing from Hyde Park state senator to Democratic keynote speaker to U.S. Senator to presidential contender is, well, phenomenal.

The story needs no retelling here; it’s been splattered across the covers of every magazine in the country for the past year—though many storytellers do not realize how remarkable was his primary election victory in 2004, transcending race, ethnicity and the Chicago political machine in an historic sweep.

In an incredibly brief time the Obama team set records for fundraising, signed up supporters everywhere and established a star-studded assemblage of policy advisers.

He rose quickly in the polls, then got stuck in second place—reaching a plateau this summer, some 15 points behind Hillary Clinton, and saw her creep that up to 20 or 22 points despite the fact that he raised more money from more people than she.

The problem is, he needs a second leg to rise off that plateau—and needs it soon, probably within a month or six weeks.

Initially, he hoped his early opposition to the Iraq war and her refusal to apologize for voting for it would suffice. Some of his own back-and-forths on pulling out and votes for funding the war blurred that distinction and disappointed (or worse) the leftward base of the party—some of whom now call him “O-bomber.”

He positioned himself, however, to the center of the netroots on a few other congressional issues, so this may be part of a plan to moderate his perceived liberalism and inoculate himself for the general election.

He apparently counted on an absolute ceiling on Clinton’s support, but that ceiling seems to be rising. He also banked on her widely perceived lack-of- electability factor taking her down, but it hasn’t happened yet—and there are indications she may actually be electable.

He blew his opportunity to gain that second wind with a breakout health care plan—say, single payer. But instead came up with a decent but less-than-universal plan, less progressive than John Edwards’s program—and possibly less so than Clinton’s.

To the surprise of many, he has not performed brilliantly in the many candidate debates, but continues to be amazing in person, drawing and pleasing huge crowds everywhere.

Job No.1, of course, is to overcome questions about his lack of experience by contrasting his good judgment on the war against the cynical experience of his opponent(s). It may take some sharp attack commercials to draw this issue out to a favorable conclusion later in the primary season.

Will Oprah Winfrey’s support provide him that second leg? Somewhat, but I doubt it will be enough. If, however, she (or some other issue) invigorates his black base, it will deflate Clinton’s numbers—though not in all-important Iowa or New Hampshire.

Can a black be elected? Yes—Harold Ford’s losing senate bid in Tennessee, where he transcended race and out-performed his poll numbers, was the acid test. (That may have convinced Obama to make the plunge.)

Obama is the smartest person of either party running for president. He has a crack team that may provide him that second leg. Much is in place, but time is running out.

Dennis Kucinich has my heart on the issues, John Edwards is similarly appealing, but Obama is where I’m leaning.

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For decades Don Rose has been a leader of liberal independent forces in Chicago; he has compiled a national reputation for skilful analysis. He is a regular columnist for The Chicago Daily Observer.