Early last month, I was asked to write a story about Barack Obama for a newspaper in my native Ireland.

I was surprised at the readiness with which the paper’s editors were prepared to grant prominence to a candidate who, I knew, was then barely on the radar of the general public. The article was to be the cover story of the newspaper’s magazine.

Shortly after it was published, I was visiting Ireland and met socially with the magazine’s editor. After making a few positive noises about Mr. Obama, she got to the point.

“He’s not actually going to win, right?”