It ranks with Alderman Pat Levar’s (45th) disastrous bid for Clerk of the Circuit Court in 2000, and county Treasurer Maria Pappas’s fizzled campaign for U.S. Senator in 2004. Add to that Alderman Howard Brookins’ (21st) embarrassingly inept bid for state’s attorney on Feb. 5.
We now have a triumvirate: Dumb, dumber and dumbest.
The 2008 Democratic primary was supposed to be the Big Black Blowout, with black Democrats sweeping every county office in the wake of a Barack Obama lovefest for president. Indeed, Obama crushed Hillary Clinton in Cook County, amassing 708,276 votes (70.7 percent) to her 301,747. But the city and county black vote was not, as expected, monolithic. Brookins garnered an astounding 542,492 fewer votes than did Obama.
“He didn’t show his face,” said one Democratic observer. “He had lots of yard signs – Obama and Brookins. He had lots of ads on black radio. But he didn’t have pictures anywhere. He needed to show two black faces. And he needed to have Obama’s endorsement.”
And, added another Democrat, “he needed to demonstrate crime-fighting credentials. He should have talked about how he fought crime in his ward. He had no plan, no program. He thought he would win just because he was black.”
In Chicago’s 20 black-majority wards, Brookins got 105,818 votes, compared to Obama’s 246,043. That meant roughly 140,000 blacks voted for Anita Alvarez, Tom Allen, Larry Suffredin, Bob Milan or Tommy Brewer. Citywide, Brookins had 120,905 votes, which means he won only 15,000 votes outside the black wards, while Obama had 459,039 votes citywide, getting about 213,000 votes outside the black wards. In Chicago, Brookins had 338,134 fewer votes than Obama.
In suburban Cook County, Brookins got a pathetic 44,879 votes, finishing fourth, while Obama got 270,335 votes. Brookins had an astounding 225,456 fewer votes than Obama.
Said another observer: “Obama was the change candidate. Brookins was the unknown candidate.”
Now that the dust has settled, this much is clear:
First, the Democratic primary, countywide and statewide, was an “estrogen election,” as female voters far outnumbered males, by close to 3–2. The discrepancy was most pronounced among blacks and Hispanics, where males are disinclined to vote. 2008 was the “Year of the Woman, Part II,” with 1992 being “Part I.”
Had more women run in 2008, more would have won. Anita Alvarez won the state’s attorney primary in a huge upset, topping white Alderman Tom Allen (38th) by an unofficial 9,946-vote margin, getting just 25.8 percent to Allen’s 24.7 percent. And you can blame that on Mayor Rich Daley. Had Daley endorsed Allen, as Allen expected, Allen would have won.
In judicial primaries, countywide and in subcircuits, a woman won 15 of 19 contested races. In the 8-candidate contest for three metropolitan water reclamation district nomination, featuring four females, two blacks and one Hispanic, the winners were the incumbents: Frank Avila (Hispanic), Kathy Meany (white female) and Cindy Santos (white female with Hispanic surname).
Second, astounding numbers of liberal and independent voters opted for the Democratic primary. The 2008 primary turnout was a record 1,981,307 statewide, compared to the Republicans’ 862,326. That means 69.6 percent of the Feb. 5 voters were Democrats. In Cook County, turnout in the state’s attorney primary was 917,737 for the Democrats, and 133,052 for the Republicans. That means 87.3 of those in Cook County voted Democratic.
The operative question is: Why would any Feb. 5 Democratic voter support any Republican in November?
By comparison, in 1992, when Carol Moseley Braun ran for U.S. senator, statewide Democratic primary turnout was 1.63 million, and in 2004, when Obama ran for U.S. Senator, turnout was 1.3 million. So, in 2008, it was 300,000 higher than in 1992, and 600,000 higher than in 2004. And that “surge” of voters was motivated by a combination of Bush revulsion, Obama love, get-out-of-Iraq, and let’s-throw-everybody-out-of-office sentiment.
Those new voters, having only a vague notion of who was on the ballot, voted for anybody who was “different” – such as Alvarez, and women for judge.
Third, Obama scored surprisingly well among white voters in Chicago and the suburbs. Obama beat Clinton 459,039–159,595 (72.8 percent) in Chicago, carrying 36 of 50 wards, and he beat her 270,335–149,613 (64.3 percent) in the Cook county suburbs, carrying 22 of 30 townships. In the collar counties, Obama won 247,997–150,409 (62.1 percent), and downstate Obama won 325,629–206,485 (61.1 percent). Overall, Obama won 92 of Illinois’ 102 counties – an amazing performance.
On Chicago’s Northwest Side, Clinton beat Obama in the 36th, 38th, 41st and 45th wards, but not by much. Clinton won the 36th ward by 433 votes, the 38th by 261, the 41st by 807, and the 45th by 83. When a black candidates wins overwhelmingly white ethnic wards, something is afoot. But the Clinton vote also shows white resistance. If Obama is the Democratic nominee, those Clinton votes will go to Republican John McCain.
Clinton also won ten other wards with a large Hispanic population or Hispanic majority: the 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 22nd, 23rd, 30th and 31st. Hispanics resist voting for a black.
In the state’s attorney’s primary, the final unofficial tally was 237,220 (25.8 percent) for Alvarez, 227,246 (24.8 percent) for Allen, 202,828 (22.1 percent) for liberal suburbanite Suffredin, 165,784 (18.1 percent) for Brookins, 53,450 (5.8 percent) for Bob Milan, who was endorsed by outgoing State’s Attorney Dick Devine, and 31,199 (3.4 percent) for Tommy Brewer, who is black.
“It was all about negativity,” argued Brookins. “And Alvarez was the candidate who was perceived most positively.”
In the presidential race, Clinton didn’t trash Obama. Knowing Illinois would go heavily for its senator, she ignored him and the state. But Allen spent over $1 million on TV ads, criticizing Alvarez and Milan, Devine’s two top assistants, as “status” and “quo,” and ripped Suffredin as a lobbyist. Suffredin slammed Allen as a political “insider.” Milan, Devine’s first assistant, hyped the endorsement of his boss. Allen, Brookins and Suffredin trashed Devine for not pursuing corruption in city and county government.
The news media unearthed a bunch of alleged ethical lapses by Brookins, including non-payment of rent and employee withholding taxes, delinquent child support, property code violations, and for putting his current wife on the payroll of a development company. Brookins issued plausible denials, but the damage was done. Brookins’ “deadbeat” image estranged him from black women and suburban white “soccer moms.”
Everybody running claimed to be a “reformer” and promised “change.” Everybody ripped Devine for not investigating official corruption. The Jon Burge scandal, with Chicago police torture and abuse, was supposed to be a huge issue. Instead, the month-long negative campaign soured voters on everybody but Alvarez.
A 21-year prosecutor and Devine’s chief deputy, Alvarez’s ads stressed her prosecutorial achievements. Because Devine endorsed Milan, she was distanced from the beleaguered incumbent. Alvarez is of Mexican-American heritage, but most of the Hispanic “establishment” ignored her. U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4) endorsed Suffredin.
Alvarez caught three key breaks. First, her husband, a physician, loaned her campaign $600,000, which enabled her to be up on TV. Second, the fact that she was once supervisor of Devine’s public integrity unit, during which time she failed to prosecute official corruption, was ignored. Her “do nothing” record was ripe for criticism. . And third, she got solid support in Hispanic wards and townships, ran ahead of Allen in white liberal areas like Evanston, Oak Park and the Chicago lakefront, and finished a close third, just behind Suffredin, in black areas. Alvarez won 16 wards and ten townships.
Alvarez won a majority in Cicero and Berwyn, and in Chicago’s 10th, 12th, 14th, 22nd, 25th, 30th and 31st wards. But she got only 44,446 of her 237,220 votes in those Hispanic areas. Quite clearly, a huge number of first-time, younger white voters backed Obama and Alvarez.
Allen, as well as his supporters, have reason to be furious. He was well-funded by labor unions, and won all the northwest Side wards, but still got only 27.5 percent countywide. The South Side 11th, 13th and 14th wards, run, respectively, by John Daley, Mike Madigan and Ed Burke, were won by Alvarez. Where was the mayor when he needed him?
Alvarez proclaimed her victory to be the “end of the good ol’ boy” network in Devine’s office. But she is a “good ol’ boy,” and holds the number three job. Her Republican opponent, Tony Peraica, is sure to attack her record and rip her as an “insider” who is part of the problem.
But Alvarez has one key credential: She lives in River Forest, so she won’t be running for mayor of Chicago. That, her make-no-waves record on public corruption, and the upcoming November landslide, will be enough to elect her.
Unlike the hapless Brookins, Alvarez is the right candidate at the right time.
________________________________________________________
Russ Stewart is a regular columnist for The Chicago Daily Observer.
Observer says:
I watched the debate between the six candidates for the position of Cook County State's Attorney and Brookins looked absolutely clueless. Cliff Kelley of WVON was trying to savage his opponents and feed Brookins softball questions, but the alderman reacted like a deer in the headlights.
Concerned says:
I think you take an unfair swipe at Alvarez over her tenure in charge of the politcal corruption unit and unfairly try to paint Alvarez's victory as only based on her sex and heritage.
In an election where John Burge was a poltical football tossed around by her challengers, Alvarez was the only one who could say she had successfully bucked the very long odds and achieve convictions against corrupt police officers. While others pounded their fists about corruption, she could say she had actually successfully prosecuted such cases.
Similarly silly, was Allen's efforts to paint Alvarez (and Milan) as responsible for Burge - when the record is that decisions on charging (or better said, not charging him) were made when they were in school. This made Allen look desperate and "political," something I'd say most do not want to see from the State's Attorney.
Now with the primaries over, efforts to paint Alvarez's victory as only or mainly due to her sex and heritage is demeaning and gives voters little credit. This is akin to saying that any successful black candidate only got their vote because of being black - it's a backhanded and racist way of demeaning the candidate's credentials by pulling out the race or sex card to rationalize the vote based on weak generalizations. Not fair when it's a black candidate and not fair when it's a Latina - especially someone as accomplished as Alvarez.
Alvarez carried a lot of wards that are surprising - at some point you have to give her credit for being the one candidate that remained positive and focused on her very extensive credentials for the post rather than dropping down and slinging mud with the others.
Come November I think you will see a fourth entry in the "dumb, dumber and dumberer" line up. The Dumbererer(?) entry will be Tony Peraica's decision to run.
Alvarez is the worst opponent he could have drawn, she's not a political insider, has no ethical problems and is a likeable and talented person.
Peraice can only run negative, has no real credentials to be State's Attorney, has made very questionable decisions in the past (i.e. the drunken march on the County Clerk's office at the end of his unsuccessful run for County Board President). Unlike some of the candidates Alvarez just beat, Peraica has nothing legitimate to throw at Alvarez.
Add to this, there are many skeletons in Peraica's closest unknown to the general public that will certainly come out now that the Democratic Party is getting in line behind Alvarez. Heck, even Cook County Republican Party leaders like Liz Gorman have their knives out for Peraica.
This is going to be a slaughter. The long term effect being Peraica coming out of the slaughter in November vulnerable to even hold his Committee seat next time through.
Keep an eye on Alvarez. At least you concluded your piece by noting she is the "right candidate."