Victory Lap: Don Rose Digests the Election Year
On my way back to Paris this week where I will do some deep meditating on the election, but meanwhile I thought I would not so humbly pat myself on the back by excerpting some of my more salient forecasts of the past year.
November 8, 2011: “I am beginning to see a little daylight between the president and his strongest competitor Mitt Romney despite polls showing them very close together and even worse for Obama in the key battleground states…. With Congress at an all-time low in esteem, Obama has a year to keep hammering the Trumanesque case that only he stands between the people and the calamity a Republican presidency will bring….
“Add to this the fact that the economy keeps inching upward. If unemployment drops a tenth of one percent every two months as it did in October, it will have dropped at least half a point by next summer—a trajectory that can be spun strongly in his favor.”
April 9, 2012: “Since it’s now certain that Mitt Romney will be the nominee (as I predicted weeks ago) Ohioans will be consistently reminded that Romney wanted to let the auto industry go bankrupt. Remember, huge portions of Ohio are part of and dependent on the automotive industry, which Obama helped save. Ohioans will vote like Michiganders on the issue….
“At this juncture I am prepared to go out on a limb and predict that Obama will win Ohio again and therefore be re-elected.”
May 14, 2012: “The defeat of [Sen. Richard] Lugar by a tea partier puts the Indiana senate race into play. Lugar would be unbeatable. State Treasurer Richard Mourdock…sufficiently far out so that many moderate and traditional conservatives may be repelled and cross over to vote for three-term Congressman Joe Donnelly, a moderate Dem in the mold of Evan Bayh.”
September 27, 2012: “[B]ased on current information, I’ll go out on a limb and predict Obama will get around 52 percent of the popular vote and more than 300 electoral votes (270 needed to win).”
October 23, 2012: “Apart from the economy…Obama has the following going for him:
“The all-important women’s vote or gender gap. The gap is huge…Since women vote in larger numbers than men—and I expect that gap to grow—advantage Obama. Ladies, you hold the election in your worthy hands.
“(Obama leads) substantially on all the intangibles or gut feelings that affect people’s behavior at the polls: likeability, ability to relate to ‘people like me,’ being on the side of the middle class….
“Making the best case for preserving Medicare—still an issue rivaling the economy as an animating impetus in the election.
“The ground game or ability to get out the vote in key states, even Florida. This looms bigger and bigger and his advantage seems to be showing up in the available figures on early voting. It is especially important in hyping turnout among Latinos in the mountain states and elsewhere who favor the president overwhelmingly.”
Maybe you questioned my sanity then—but I love saying “I told ya so!”
Don Rose is a regular columnist for the Chicago Daily Observer