No president with this kind of lopsided majority in the House can not score a victory on health care, given the auction-bloc bidding being conducted behind the scenes. So I predict the bill will pass the House …but the battle is far from over. For one thing, Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad [D-ND] is making sounds like the bill will have to go back his committee for some fixing—then to another vote of the full Senate…and ultimately it would have to go back to the House again! Mitch McConnell will take the bill to the Supreme Court on constitutional grounds. And the issue will be prime…dwarfing all others in 2010 and on to 2012.

So shaky were House managers yesterday that they churned fresh billions as add-ons to make it more sweet; beginning in 2014 Americans would be required by law for the first time to buy instance and face penalties if they refuse. There is no doubt that it will be financed by tax increases on businesses…this in time of recession. The promise that there will be cuts in Medicare to pay for the expansion is illusory: no Congress has ever rolled back Medicare. Last minute sweeteners to shore up the doubtful are included in 153 pages of last changes. Federally guaranteed student loans would now be made only by the government, ending a role for banks and non-profits…increasing Pell grants for needy college students and supporting aid to historically black colleges (a priority of the Congressional Black Caucus.
If the House vote comes Sunday…consigning 1/6th of the economy to shackles and escalating the debt and deficit to astronomical heights…the voters should remember who helped turn the tide to a European-style regulated economy.

As Obama himself said on Fox, the vote to deem can be judged as a vote to pass.

When that happens, who can we blame in Illinois? Gutierrez, Bean, Halvoson, and Foster

In this state it starts with Luis Gutiérrez [4th] who cut a deal to make some publicity for himself…drawing himself up to his full height and chirping with his pip-squeak voice that illegals making “major contributions to the United States” must get free health care… before the ex-cab-driver, ex-college protester at Northeastern Illinois. shrunk back on cue following orders from Emanuel… to announce he’ll change “no” to “yes: since he has an obligation to see Obama looks good.

The Hungry Three:

1. Melissa Bean [8th] who’s been hoping against hope that Obama will have enough votes to allow a “no” vote which will not destroy her big business support gained when she voted for the Central America Free Trade Agreement. Answer: Obama doesn’t and Bean’s Goldilocks reputation with the U.S. Chamber will dissipate with not inconsiderable flatulence.

2. Debbie Halvorson [11th]. There was a strong tug for Obama that pulled it out for her in 2008 otherwise she’d be history.

Now she’s told that she can joyfully make history along with Our Dear Leader. She’s not too happy about it: was hoping she could vote a “no.” She regards the order to vote “yes” as about as exciting as her bizarre  (self-referential) campaign for vaccinating against HPV.

3. Bill Foster [14th]. He represents the old Denny Hastert district. An anomaly, he got in during a special against Jim Oberweis who was making his umpteenth unsuccessful run for office…convinced that some day and some way he would get enough people to like me! Aw please say you like me!” They said they don’t twice in 2008, at the special and the general. With an internecine battle in the GOP for the nomination in November, Foster benefited from a commercial cut by then hot-property Obama who said: “He [Foster] will focus on changing Washington to get results. I endorse Bill Foster because he represents the hope and change WE NEED!”

Foster’s been there with a solid majority. Republicans will ask voters of the 14th: Now that good old Foster has voted with Obama…how are you of the 14th making’ out with all that hope and change?

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Tom Roeser is the Chairman of the Editorial Board of the Chicago Daily Observer

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