This column is usually styled “analysis and opinion.” This week, despite the public’s underwhelming response to the onset of Chicago’s 2011 Chicago municipal election season, it’s “gossip and opinion.”

Nature provides earth dwellers with four seasons. Chicago dwellers have only one season: All politics, all the time, with no respite, and continual overlap. The 2010 election is still two months away, but Aug. 24 heralded the first day to legally circulate nominating petitions for Chicago alderman and citywide office, which are due by Nov. 29. The election is Feb. 22, 2011.

A crowd of aldermanic candidates has already emerged in the Northwest Side 36th, 41st and 45th wards.

In the 41st Ward, Alderman Brian Doherty will retire. Doherty is running for state senator in the Nov. 2 election as a Republican, and faces a tough race against appointed incumbent John Mulroe (D). Doherty is backing his 14-year administrative assistant, Maurita Gavin, for alderman. Gavin will face four foes.

In the 36th Ward, Alderman Bill Banks resigned in 2009, and he prevailed upon Mayor Rich Daley to appoint John Rice, his chief-of-staff – although Rice’s job was primarily to serve as Banks’ driver – as his replacement. Four or more candidates will oppose Rice.

In the 45th Ward, Alderman Pat Levar, despite some health problems, will not retire. Rumors were rampant that Levar would pass the job to State Representative Joe Lyons (D-19). But, on Aug. 25, 45th Ward precinct captains hit the streets with Levar’s petitions. Levar is running, and may face up to 8 opponents.

In analyzing 2011, certain eternal political verities apply:

First, positioning – meaning second place — is critical. If a longtime incumbent is running – like Levar, first elected in 1987 — the election is a referendum on incumbent performance and/or personality. The opponents’ goal is to pummel the alderman, exploit incumbent fatigue, portray themselves as the most credible alternative, and finish second in February, getting at least 30-35 percent of the vote. Presumably, the alderman finishes first, but gets less than 50 percent. The runner-up then faces the incumbent in the April, unites the anti-incumbent field, and usually wins.

That verity has tangential application to Rice and Gavin. Both, as staffers, are tied to their mentors, Banks and Doherty. If they overly emphasize their ex-boss’ endorsement, or their service to the ex-alderman, they create the opportunity to make the contest a referendum on the ex-incumbent’s record.

Second, in an open seat race, developing a niche is critical. That means a cobbling together a voter coalition based on party affiliation, ideology, geography, gender, ethnicity, issues, or a combination thereof. The goal: Get a third of the vote. Even though the aldermanic election is non-partisan, support from the local Democratic or Republican ward organization is exceedingly helpful.

The 1991 race in the 41st Ward is illustrative: Doherty, a then-obscure county employee backed by precinct workers from State Representative Roger McAuliffe’s 38th Ward Republican organization, got 6,758 votes (30.6 percent), in an 8-candidate race, finishing second. The 18-year incumbent, Roman Pucinski, got 9,181 votes (41.6 percent). The turnout was 22,034, with 6,095 votes to 6 other candidates.

In the ensuing runoff, turnout rose to 25,480 (an increase of 3,446), and Doherty beat Pucinski by 13,782-11,698 (54.1 percent). Pucinski upped his vote by 2,517, but Doherty’s increased by 7,024, capturing virtually all the prior anti-Pucinski votes. Doherty’s Irish surname, Pucinski “fatigue,” and an effective precinct operation got him nearly a third of the vote, and a runoff.

Third, money talks, idle rhetoric walks. A credible contender for alderman must raise at least $50,000. A wardwide mailing costs $15,000. Add to that yard signs, headquarters’ rent, phone banking, ads, printing, and staff.

And fourth, convey stature. In Chicago, alderman is a powerful position. With 66,000 people per ward, in 20,000-plus households, aldermen have a direct impact on their constituents’ quality of life. With a $5.3 billion city budget, aldermen have an impact on spending and taxes. Voters want their alderman to be tough, assertive, resourceful and effective – and to oppose Daley when necessary. They don’t want a gadfly, puppet, or clueless “reformer.”

Here’s the latest gossip and analysis:

41st Ward: Doherty’s term runs through April 2011, so he had a “Plan B”: If he lost the state senate race, he could run for re-election. But Doherty realized that’s a liability. Mulroe criticized Doherty for (a) not being serious about running and (b) not being confident of winning. Mulroe’s ally, 41st Ward Democratic Committeeman Mary O’Connor, announced for alderman, and they are running a dual-track anti-Doherty campaign: Their door-to-door workers push both, and the Mulroe campaign will morph into the O’Connor campaign after Nov. 2.

Springfield Democrats will dump at least $300,000 into Mulroe’s race, with a multitude of negative mailings hypocritically tying Doherty to Chicago corruption, blasting him on ward issues, and ripping him as a political “insider.” Throughout Illinois, Republicans are running as “outsiders.” But Doherty, a 19-year alderman, is no “outsider.” Mulroe, now a senator, replacing Jim DeLeo, who resigned, will be a cog in Senate President John Cullerton’s machine. Republicans will tie Mulroe to Springfield corruption, even though he just got there. The nasty Doherty-Mulroe campaign will have minimal tie to reality.

Astutely concluding that he’d be “damaged goods” if he loses, that he can’t wait until after he wins to pick a successor, and that O’Connor already has a huge headstart, Doherty decided to retire as alderman. He is backing Gavin, the widow of former ward sanitation superintendent Patrick Gavin, who has been his aide since 1996. “She’s the most saleable candidate. She has extensive knowledge of ward issues. She has integrity and a work ethic,” said Doherty. Gavin was unanimously endorsed by the executive committee of the 41st Ward Republican organization.

Now Doherty can run a dual-track campaign in the 41st Ward, and Gavin will have a campaign operation in place before – not after– Nov. 2.

Other candidates: Richard Gonzalez, an 18-year Chicago police officer, currently a sergeant in the 13th District (Wood Street), is credible. An estimated 1,500 votes are cast in the ward by police officers and their families. Gonzalez’ theme is simple: Get tough. Fight crime. Deploy more police.

“She (Gavin) was unanimously endorsed by Doherty,” said Jim Soreng, “not by Republicans in the ward.” Soreng, a former regional director for the state treasurer, now a policy consultant for Resolute Consulting, is running as a professed Republican. Soreng adds: “She (Gavin) is tied to Doherty. There is Doherty fatigue. She cannot win.”

Also running is Mike Hannon, 26-year old account manager, who got 1,556 votes in 2007 (11.1 percent). He is backed by former Democratic Committeeman Ralph Capparelli.

The outlook: As a police officer, Gonzalez has stature, and a base. As Democratic committeeman, O’Connor has a base. She got 5,744 votes when she ran for committeeman in 2008. As Doherty’s aide, Gavin has extensive contacts throughout the ward, and a base among hardcore pro-Doherty voters. Soreng is an unknown quantity. The victor? It all depends on voter priorities. If it’s fighting crime, Gonzalez makes the runoff; if it’s good ward services, Gavin and O’Connor have an edge. All three have a potential base of 30 percent. Soreng and Hannon will bring up the rear.

36th Ward: In 2007, Banks spent $538,382 and crushed firefighter Nick Sposato, by 8,315-2,599 (76.2 percent). But Rice is not Banks, and lacks stature and money. Sposato is back for a second crack. Jody Biancalana, who got 6,336 votes in the ward in a losing 2006 bid for county commissioner; Chicago police officer Tom Motzny; and water department employee Bruce Randazzo are running. Others rumored are Ginny Partipilo, Larry Andolino, Victor Ochoa and Mike Marzullo.

The outlook: In a field of 6-plus, there’s no way Rice can avoid a runoff. “Everybody’s knows him (Rice) as ‘the driver,’” said Sposato. “He gets no respect.”

45th Ward: Levar won in 2007 with 56.2 percent, spending $443,896. Since then, Levar “fatigue” has become pervasive. A large anti-Levar field has emerged for 2011, a sure sign of the incumbent’s weakness.

Candidates include Portage Park businessmen Don Blair and John Arena; Chicago police lieutenant John Garrido, from the Elston-Austin area; Forest Glen realtor Anna Klocek and police officer Mike Ward; Gladstone Park accountant Bruno Bellissimo; and Jefferson Park political gadfly Greg Sedlacek.

The issue is Levar. The field will pound away on the “5-I’s”: That Levar is inept, inattentive, indecisive, politically impotent in the city council, and intolerable.

The top tier is Blair, a community activist who expects to spend $250,000; Arena, who will run as an anti-Daley “reformer”; and Garrido, with a base among police and support from the ward’s Republican organization.

The outlook: With this huge field, a runoff is certain. Those who believe that Levar will prevail, and win a seventh term, are those who believe in the Tooth Fairy, the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus.

**

Russ Stewart is a political analyst for The Chicago Daily Observer.

image The Alderman as Master of Gaming, Fermented Liquors, and Temporary Erections about to issue a decree