Twenty candidates met the filing deadline for the Chicago mayoral race, most of them nonentities who may not wind up on the ballot, though the more African Americans who remain on it help Rahm Emanuel’s cause by continuing to fractionalize the black vote.

The unexpected entry was former Senator Roland Burris who perhaps has some fragment of a constituency, though he filed only 20,000 signatures, 8,000 above the minimum. The rule of thumb is one needs triple the minimum to remain on the ballot after challenges—so he may be eliminated. If he stays, he adds to the split among three other serious African Americans, Congressman Danny Davis, former Senator Carol Moseley Braun and State Senator/Reverend Joseph Meeks.

A recent professional poll showed Emanuel far ahead with 39 percent—not enough to win the first round outright. Braun with 12.33 percent was the only other candidate in double digits. The logic of the moment suggests she will be the leading African American vote getter, but there is much in her past to take her down badly.

Meanwhile, as the world knows now, there is a significant legal effort to remove Emanuel from the ballot on the technical ground that he is not an official resident of Chicago because when he went to Washington to become Barack Obama’s chief of staff, he rented out his home to a guy who won’t break the lease and let Emanuel move back in. Amusingly enough, Emanuel’s renter, a political nonentity, also filed petitions to run for mayor.

Emanuel is now living in other quarters where he re-registered as a voter.

Burt Odelson, a great election lawyer retained by Meeks but who technically does not represent Meeks in the challenge, filed the main case. There are five more copycat cases. This is traditional Chicago: candidates are never the official challengers. Challengers are just “interested citizens.” We believe this because a Chicago election lawyer said it.

Here’s what’s going to happen: All the cases will be consolidated, hearings will be held by the election board and regardless of the outcome the matter will probably find its way up to the Illinois Supreme Court, which will ultimately find in Emanuel’s favor. They will rule that Emanuel’s two-year stint in the White House is equivalent to a soldier’s going to war somewhere and is therefore an exception to all the other residency requirements.

The campaign will continue.

I wrote last week of two Latino candidates, indicating they must run as broader-based candidates because there aren’t enough registered Latinos to be a threatening force.

One of is City Clerk Miguel del Valle, a former independent Democratic state senator who Mayor Richard M.Daley anointed for the clerk’s job. He has the support of most of the progressive Latino office holders such as Alderman Rick Munoz and County Commissioner Jesus “Chuy” Garcia plus many progressive white allies who were once part of the Harold Washington coalition. But he has opposition in some progressive Latino quarters because of his compromises with Daley and some senate history. Sadly, the Latino left, like the black left, is rarely united and del Valle’s chances at the moment are not looking great—though things can change rapidly.

The candidate who seems to be on the ascendancy at the moment is Gery Chico, whose father was Mexican and his mother mixed European. Chico has served in a number of major urban capacities having been Daley’s chief of staff, head of the school board and recently head of the city college system. He has what must be considered the best experience and resume to serve as mayor—though Emanuel has something parallel in serving as the president’s chief of staff and as a Chicago congressman. None of the others experience comes close.

Chico ran poorly in a 2004 senate bid, largely because the old-line law firm he headed collapsed in mid campaign. This is certain to become a commercial if Chico rises in the polls.

It’s all early speculation now, but Chico has a lot of business support—Latino and white—and will be well financed. He also has a string of political pros who stand ready to back him, though Emanuel is picking up more committeemen every day. My hunch is that if the African Americans cancel each other out, as well they might, Chico could be the dark horse who winds up in the runoff with Emanuel.

So goes the horse race. We’ll get issues soon—I hope.

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Don Rose is a regular columnist for the Chicago Daily Observer