Initial estimates of second quarter real GDP put growth at 1.9% annualized, less than consensus expectations, and weaker than the First Trust forecast. At the same time, the Commerce Department revised its estimates to show a very small 0.2% decline in Q4–2007 real GDP.
However, government estimates of inventories – the part we have the least information about – fell by the second largest amount in history. We believe this decline was overstated and Q2 real GDP growth will be revised up in the months ahead. Real final sales (which exclude inventories) grew at a robust 3.9% rate.
In response to the data Dr. Victor Zarnowitz, who serves on the recession dating committee of the NBER, told the Wall Street Journal that “There is no cyclical decline, yet.”
Despite this, some analysts argue that Q2 data overestimated the true pace of real growth because the government ... Read More...