Economic Fundamentals Say No Recession
It’s not hard to understand why fears of recession are elevated, or why some economists even think the US is in one right now. From their 2005 peaks, existing home sales are down 32% and new home sales are down 62%. Home prices are falling at their fastest pace in decades. Car and truck sales have been abysmal, with US-made vehicle sales down 15.3% versus a year ago.
The credit markets have seen enormous turmoil, with huge write-downs at major financial institutions, wider risk spreads, and a correction in the stock market.
These developments, or news about them, have helped drop at least one measure of consumer sentiment to its lowest level since the end of the 1981–82 recession, when the unemployment rate was up above 10%.
The conventional wisdom is not always wrong. But ... Read More...
