Chicago Daily Observer

While Hillary Clinton and her strategists may publicly insist that it ain’t over until it’s over, her campaign is over.
Clinton must concoct an “exit strategy,” so as to minimize personal political damage, generate a modicum of goodwill, and maximize future political opportunity. In short, she must hope that Barack Obama loses the presidency, while avoiding blame for his loss.
So, too, must two prominent Illinois politicians who are poised on the brink of defeat and departure, respectively: Tony Peraica and Rod Blagojevich.
Peraica, Cook County commissioner and 2008 Republican candidate for state’s attorney, will not beat Democrat Anita Alvarez. If he expects to be a viable candidate for county board president in 2010, he can’t be obliterated in a landslide. In fact, he’ll be fortunate to get 35 percent. But the belligerent Peraica got into the race to win, so an exit strategy – and pre-election ... Read More...

Make no mistake about it: The Republicans are on the verge of eradication, if not extinction. If they don’t want to suffer the fate of the Federalists or Whigs, who vanished in the 1800s, their solution is simple: Lose the 2008 presidential election.
Let the country repudiate, and then forget, the Bush Administration.
In fact, the 2008 contest is really about future failure, not future “change.” Given the intractable situation in Iraq, coupled with a worsening economy – especially $4-a-gallon gasoline, inflation, and the collapse of the real estate market—the next president confronts a world of woe, and likely failure. It will be Jimmy Carter, Part Two.
To be sure, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain want to win in 2008. But that winner will be a loser in 2012. The 2008 outcome will either reaffirm the country’s two-party system, or precipitate a transitional non-party ... Read More...

The current joke in Springfield is that ubiquitous Governor Rod Blagojevich—a publicity hound who closely monitors political trends, yet is mired in a multitude of seemingly intractable legal, political and fiscal problems—has embraced a new 2010 re-election strategy.

His ploy – and hope for political salvation—is to join the “Dumb-R-Us Club,” consisting of embattled politicians who confess their sins and/or stupidity, fervently hoping that a forgiving and/or forgetting public may still re-elect them.

To be sure, Blagojevich hasn’t engaged in acts rising to the level of moral depravity—but the candidate who promised to “rock Springfield” and blaze a “new way,” has, as governor, proven himself just another superficial, self-serving hypocrite, concerned only with his self-preservation and advancement. Luckily for America, his presidential hopes have collapsed. Instead of the White House, Blago may end up in the Big House, joining such predecessors as Otto Kerner, Dan Walker and George Ryan.

If ... Read More...

Here’s a likely presidential scenario:

Barack Obama goes to the Denver Democratic convention, beginning Aug. 25, with a few more delegates than Hillary Clinton. At present, Obama leads in the delegate hunt by 1,617–1,498. Amid much discord, and much controversy about the non-elected super-delegates, Obama is nominated. Blacks and white liberals are ecstatic. Obama proclaims the “end of racism.”
Critics, however, proclaim the end of the Democratic coalition. Huge numbers of Hispanics and working-class whites gasp and gag – and resolve to vote Republican. They will not back a black for president.

Likewise, huge numbers of baby-boomer women, who crave a female president in their lifetime, are enraged that Obama has snuffed their dream.

As a result, John McCain wins the presidency, with the Republicans snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. But blacks are infuriated by Obama’s loss, and America’s so-called “racial divide,” which Obama attempted to bridge, ... Read More...

There is a fine distinction between a persistent candidate and a perennial candidate. The latter runs repeatedly, and loses. The former runs repeatedly, but loses credibly, not by much, and eventually triumphs.

The epitome of persistence in Illinois politics is Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn. His persistence could pay off. Gov.. Blagojevich’s legal problems could well create a vacancy before 2010, elevating Quinn to chief executive. But when it comes to electoral success, Quinn, age 60, is batting only .500. He’s won four, and lost four.

In 1982, Democrat Quinn was elected commissioner of the Cook county board of tax appeals. In 1986, he lost the primary for state treasurer. In 1990, he won the primary and was elected state treasurer. In 1994, he lost to George Ryan for secretary of state. In 1996, he lost the primary to Dick Durbin for U.S. senator. In 1998, he lost the primary for ... Read More...

It ranks with Alderman Pat Levar’s (45th) disastrous bid for Clerk of the Circuit Court in 2000, and county Treasurer Maria Pappas’s fizzled campaign for U.S. Senator in 2004. Add to that Alderman Howard Brookins’ (21st) embarrassingly inept bid for state’s attorney on Feb. 5.

We now have a triumvirate: Dumb, dumber and dumbest.

The 2008 Democratic primary was supposed to be the Big Black Blowout, with black Democrats sweeping every county office in the wake of a Barack Obama lovefest for president. Indeed, Obama crushed Hillary Clinton in Cook County, amassing 708,276 votes (70.7 percent) to her 301,747. But the city and county black vote was not, as expected, monolithic. Brookins garnered an astounding 542,492 fewer votes than did Obama.

“He didn’t show his face,” said one Democratic observer. “He had lots of yard signs – Obama and Brookins. He had lots of ads on black radio. But he ... Read More...

It will be remembered as Black Tuesday. Or the Big Black Blowout. In the Feb. 5, 2008 Democratic primary, black candidates will be nominated for three Cook county offices (state’s attorney, recorder, and clerk of circuit court), two appellate court vacancies, and Barack Obama will win the state’s presidential primary.
Here’s an analysis of the Obama-Clinton race and the Board of Review (2nd District), plus predictions by Chicago Daily Observer editorial board chairman Tom Roeser and political analyst Russ Stewart on Roeser’s WLS show concerning a multitude of Chicago, Cook County, and congressional races.
President (Democratic): black Democrats excelled in the 1983, 1992, 2000 and 2004 primaries. In 2008, it’s a replication of 1992 and 2004. Black turnout in Chicago and Cook County will be huge. Obama wins, but by how much?
In the 1992 U.S. Senate primary, black recorder Carol Moseley Braun got 409,574 votes ... Read More...

“The Three Stooges” have been resurrected in the Democratic
primary for state senator in the Northwest Side 20th District.
But instead of Moe, Larry and Curly, the three alleged buffoons are
Rich, Iris and Rod. State Representative Rich Bradley (D-40) is
challenging State Senator Iris Martinez (D-20), and the antics of
Governor Rod Blagojevich have emerged as the central issue.

A “stooge” is defined as an underling to another, and is a term
of contempt. Martinez holds Bradley in contempt, deeming him a Madigan
Monkey, stooge of Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, and do-nothing
legislator. Bradley holds Martinez in contempt, deeming her a Rod
Rooter, stooge of Illinois Senate President Emil Jones, and slavish
supporter of the governor. She “is generally supportive” of
Blagojevich, Martinez admits.

Bradley switched to the Senate race ... Read More...

To jumble, mix and butcher a couple of metaphors, the upcoming Feb. 5 contest for Democratic ward committeeman in the 41st and 50th wards is about the shelf life of the occupant of a job which is barely worth a bucket of warm spit.

A long-ago vice-president, Texan John Nance Garner, who served 1933–40, opined that his job “wasn’t worth a bucket of warm spit.” That was back in the days when spittoons were still in use. Without city, county or state patronage, a contemporary Chicago committeeman’s job is the equivalent of Garner’s, and the occupant is often mistaken for a spittoon.

But the two wards’ incumbents, Ralph Capparelli (41st) and Berny Stone (50th), are still saleable, well-known commodities. They’ve been political fixtures for almost 40 years. And even though both are septuagenarians – Capparelli is 82 and Stone 80 – their political shelf life has not yet expired.

Amusingly, ... Read More...

The biggest obstacle for Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan in her anticipated 2010 quest for the governorship is her father, not the governor.

There’s no doubt that Madigan, in a Democratic primary against beleaguered incumbent Rod Blagojevich, would win. But there’s growing doubt that her father, Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, will give up his powerful post in order to stifle voter misgivings about the Madigans possibly running the whole state. .

Should Lisa Madigan win, a father/daughter team would occupy two of Illinois’ three most powerful positions. Facing Lisa in a primary, Blagojevich, hoping voters will forget that he’s governor because of his family ties, would excoriate Lisa as Mike’s “puppet.” Think of his ads: “Do you want a governor who does what Big Daddy tells her? Or a governor who stands up to Big Daddy?” Or: “Madigan and Madigan. Too much power.”

The Springfield presumption is that Mike ... Read More...

Among Hispanic politicians in Chicago and Cook County, there’s no dispute that U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4) is Numero Uno. Gutierrez is likely to run for mayor on 2011, whether or not his on-again, off-again ally, Rich Daley, retires.
Gutierrez, age 54, rescinded his announced retirement in 2008 after concluding that, as a former congressman, he would forfeit his visibility, power base, and fundraising capability. Also, his successor in the 4th district would become an instant mayoral contender, thereby undercutting Gutierrez.
There’s plenty of dispute as to who’s Numero Dos – Number Two – among Hispanic politicians. The upcoming 2008 Democratic primaries feature plenty of contests between various protégés and allies of assorted Hispanic politicians, all of whom are jockeying to expand their power bases and/or undermine their rivals, all with a view to running for mayor, or running for an open 4th District congressional seat.
If ... Read More...

Political realignments occur regularly. When Democrats consistently win in historically Republican areas, like northern metropolitan-area suburbs, or the Republicans consistently win in historically Democratic areas, like the Deep South, it’s not an aberration.

But there’s a new factor: unalignment. The American electorate is divided into thirds: Democratic, Republican, and unaligned independents. For this the thid r group, which is heavily white, affluent, suburban and secular, voting Republican is seldom cool or acceptable.

Hardcore Democrats disdain Republicans as macho, war-like, tight-fisted, mean-spirited, intolerant, bigoted and dictatorial. That’s expected. Hardcore Republicans deride Democrats as squishy-soft on national defense and terrorist issues, and obsessed with creating a Utopia on earth. That’s expected.

What’s unexpected is that independents, driven by the “politics of culture,” have turned strongly against the Republicans. For them, issues like abortion rights, gun control, gay rights, immigration reform resonate, and to them, Republicans are on the wrong side. In their ... Read More...

Democrats, in 2006, gained 30 U.S. House seats, for a 232–203 majority. Despite control, and abysmal congressional approval ratings, Democrats are poised to gain up to 20 more in 2008, primarily in the northeast, where Republicans are reviled and President Bush is toxic.
But Illinois, a heavily Democratic blue state, sends nine Republican and 10 Democratic representatives to Washington. That may change in 2008. Democrats could gain up to four seats, or Republicans could gain one.
Three Downstate Republicans are retiring, and the North Shore’s Mark Kirk (R-10) is vulnerable. Melissa Bean (D-8) will face a big-spending Republican, and could lose her McHenry County district.
The “Five R’s” will dictate the outcomes: Reprieve, Respite, Reprise, Regret, and Reject. Here’s the outlook:
1st District (Chicago’s south side and near-south suburbs): The politics of race hasn’t changed in this district, which was 65.2 percent black in the 2000 ... Read More...

“Looking for Bobby Jindal.” That’s not a recent movie, or a sequel to “Looking for Mr. Goodbar.”

Instead, it’s a quest, perhaps utterly forlorn, by Illinois Republicans to find somebody to run for governor in 2010 like Jindal, Louisiana’s new Republican governor. Stressing the issues of competence and honesty in a state where corruption and cronyism are the norm, Jindal won a solid 54 percent victory in October, in a field with 11 other candidates.

Like Louisiana in the past, Illinois is a cesspool of corruption. A former Louisiana Democratic governor, Edwin Edwards, is vegetating in a federal prison, as is a former Illinois Republican governor, George Ryan. The current Louisiana governor, Kathleen Blanco, a Democrat, is roundly reviled as inept and incompetent, due to her handling of the Hurricane Katrina aftermath. The current Illinois governor, Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat, is roundly reviled for his arrogance, ineptitude and mendacity. Blanco ... Read More...

The salient question in Springfield is not whether the Republicans can take over the Senate in 2008 by exploiting Democratic bickering and incompetence. They can’t. They might increase their 22–37 Illinois Senate minority by a seat or two. But they won’t gain a majority.

Instead, the operative inquiry is when black Democratic Illinois Senate President Emil Jones, from the South Side, will retire, and who will replace him. Jones, age 72, is a staunch ally of Gov. Blagojevich, a fierce critic of Democratic Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, and the creator and perpetuator of a patronage empire that rewards his family and friends.

At this year’s state tair, Jones said Madigan “is not a man of his word,” a huge insult to Madigan, who prides himself on keeping his word.

Jones’ departure would be a blow to the governor, and a boon to Madigan. Jones’ term expires in 2008, and ... Read More...

As the Oct. 29 filing deadline approaches, area political circles are awash with rumor, bluff, duplicity, deceit, and creeping paranoia – all the usual political nonsense.

Here’s an early summary:

In Chicago’s 50th Ward, which encompasses West Rogers Park, basic instincts are unsheathed and unrestrained.

From the perspective of 79-year old Bernie (who spells his name Berny) Stone, a fading political icon who has been alderman since 1973, the 2008 Democratic committeeman race is all about self-perpetuation. If he loses his committeeman’s post, he’ll be a political eunuch, unable to either plausibly run for re-election in 2011, or to hand off the aldermanic job to his daughter, Ilana Stone Feketitsch, who is his chief-of-staff.

From the perspective of ambitious, 47-year old State Senator Ira Silverstein (D-8), who proudly claims that “Berny has been my mentor,” the 2008 committeeman’s race is all about self-preservation. Silverstein aspires to the Illinois Senate’

The ... Read More...

Al Gore is to receive a Nobel prize for his crusade against global warming, which was the focus of his documentary movie, “An Inconvenient Truth.”
Back in Chicago, where Rich Daley has been mayor for 18-plus years, where corruption flourishes, and where property taxes are about to surge, there is also an “inconvenient truth” – namely: that Chicagoans love their mayor. Polar icecaps may be melting, and Al Sharpton may be invading Chicago, but there has been no cooling of popular affection for Daley. Not yet.
There are times – indeed, many times – when the mayor appears to be frazzled, fumbling, bumbling, and nearly incomprehensible, but these shortcomings are offset by the urban “livability index” theory. In short, when crime rates are declining, education performance is increasing, taxes are tolerable, city services are acceptable, property values are stable or growing, the economy is robust, and the city ... Read More...

Just as the Chicago Bears are on the verge of a quarterback “controversy,” Chicago Mayor Daley is in the throes of a police superintendent controversy. He wants to replace Dana Starks, the mercurial interim superintendent—but he can’t find the right replacement.

In choosing a police superintendent, rank matters. Family history matters. Political connections matter. And, most importantly, being an “insider” matters. The so-called “culture” of the department decrees that a non-Chicagoan, somebody from another city, cannot win or earn the trust of rank-and-file police officers.

But, in the ongoing, fruitless search to replace the departed Phil Cline, the selection criterion has changed as the political, bureaucratic and racial environment has deteriorated – both inside and outside of the department.

Cline resigned April 2, amid headlines of barroom brawls involving off-duty cops. One beat a female bartender, and six beat four businessmen. In the special operations section (SOS), a supposedly elite ... Read More...

How low can Rod go? That’s the question state legislators are gleefully pondering in Springfield, as they debate the depths to which Blagojevich’s poll numbers, political support, and moral credibility will plummet.
In a town where camaraderie and conviviality are the norm, the governor’s belligerence, recalcitrance, petulance, egotism and arrogance are deemed abhorrent – if not deviant. “The man (Blagojevich) has a character flaw,” Democratic State Senator Mike Jacobs is quoted as saying.
Blagojevich does not govern, which means to direct, lead or manage. Instead, he reacts, which means he responds to polls. His style is confrontational, and he is in a perpetual campaign mode, undoubtedly convinced that voters are more impressed by a governor who is a fighter than by a governor who is a doer. He seeks sound bytes, not accomplishments.
“What’s wrong with him (Blagojevich)?” lamented State Representative Joe Lyons (D-19). “We, as Democrats, ... Read More...

In politics, a month is a lifetime, a year is a millennium, and 2010, when the next census occurs, is an eternity. Voters forget, situations alter, and current problems, and conventional wisdom, invariably change.
Politicians on Chicago’s northwest side are already nervously pondering, or eagerly anticipating, the impact of the next census on their respective wards. At least one northwest side white ward, probably the 38th, will be dismembered in order to create a new Hispanic-majority ward.
The city’s geographic area west of Western avenue and north of North avenue – known as Jefferson township on tax records—contains all or parts of 15 wards. It includes all of the 41st, 45th, 38th, 36th, 39th, 33rd, 31st, 30th and 35th wards, and parts of the 50th, 40th, 29th, 26th, 37th and 1st wards.
The 29th and 37th wards have black majorities and an exploding Hispanic population. After ... Read More...

Next Feb. 5, in the Illinois Democratic presidential primary, the much-hyped Barack Obama has an opportunity to make history – for Howard Brookins, however, not for himself.
Much as they did for Harold Washington back in the 1980s, black voters in Chicago and suburban Cook County will enthusiastically stampede to the polls to support Obama for president. And they will also, with only slightly less enthusiasm, support Brookins, the black alderman from the West Side 21st Ward, in the contest for Cook County State’s Attorney.
An Illinois victory for Obama, on a day when 19 primaries and three caucuses are held, will be only marginally noteworthy. If Obama can’t win his home state, then he’s not saleable elsewhere. But a victory by Brookins will rock the county’s Richter scale. If Brookins ultimately beats the Republican nominee, County Commissioner Tony Peraica, he will not only be the first black ... Read More...

The Einstein-like formula for the Democrats to win the presidency in 2008 is EC+GROB+NTP. That means Electoral College plus burgeoning Get Rid Of Bush sentiment plus No Third Party, coupled with a credible Democratic nominee, equals victory. In a two-party race for president, it’s all about the Electoral College. George Bush got 50,456,169 votes in 2000 (47.8%) and 62,040,060 votes in 2004 (50.7%). Bush carried 29 states in 2000, 30 in 2004; he got 271 electoral votes in 2000, one more than a majority, and 286 in 2004. Two 2000 Gore states (New Mexico and Iowa) went for Bush in 2004, and one 2000 Bush state (New Hampshire) went for Kerry in 2004. The arithmetic for 2008 is simple: If pro-Bush 2004 states containing 17 or more electoral votes switch to the Democrat in 2008, the election is over. Ohio (20), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Iowa (7), ... Read More...